Written by Ryan Trammell Writer and Contributor @tramFLAFFL and @tram on the Fantasy Life App
Here we go on another fantasy football season! Week one is in the books and a mountain of stats await those who care to sift through them to find the true diamonds in the rough. This is the first installment of Buy Low/Sell High this year but what we are really talking about is value; overvalued and undervalued players. Hopefully this article will save you some time and help guide you in your evaluations of worth.
UNDER: We start with a couple players whom I believe are currently being undervalued.
Thomas Rawls: I have been talking up Rawls ever since last year. He proved to be more than just a player that was keeping the seat warm for Marshawn Lynch. He rushed for over 100 yards three times and over 200 yards once in 13 games last year. For some reason, people have forgotten this. His season was ended early by an ankle injury that has hindered him into Week 1 of this season but I'm not scared. He was healthy enough for 12 rushing attempts and caught 3 passes and that will only increase next week.
Everyone has also been singing the praises of Christine Michael this off-season as well. You know, the guy that has been hyped since coming to the NFL but has never had success. In fact, he was traded to Dallas last year who ended up waiving him. Apparently "the light has come on" but that gets said every offseason about players with tons of talent and potential but never put it all together. Rawls is still a Top 10 RB that you can probably get at an 11-20 price.
Gary Barnidge: Many of you were probably just like me, ready to kick him to the curb after the goose egg he put up Week 1 after only receiving two targets. But wait, it was learned earlier yesterday that RGIII has been placed on Injured Reserve and will miss at least eight weeks and probably the whole season. As tragic as that is, it means Josh McCown will be the Cleveland Browns starting QB.
I read an interesting stat that said in eight games last year with McCown at QB, Barnidge had 43 catches for 626 yards and 6 TD's... in just eight games!. That averaged out to more points per game than Gronk. I believe this makes Barnidge a Top 5 TE that you could probably get for a much lower price possibly outside the top 10 if someone in your league is blinded by rage or is not paying attention.
Mark Ingram: He fell victim to a shootout between the Saints and Raiders. Let that sink in for a minute. Not too many people saw that coming. Drew Brees and David Carr combined for 742 passing yards. That limited Ingram to only 12 touches on the ground and only 2 receptions. People undervalue his pass catching skills big time. He caught 50 passes in only 12 games last year. He does come with an injury history. He hasn't played a full season since 2012 but if you can predict injury then you should be in Vegas. He is the short yardage and goaline back and will take some third down work. Better days are ahead for the former Alabama bruiser.
OVER: Overvalued players are always harder for me to write about. It's hard to sell a guy that may have just won you your week.
Larry Fitzgerald: I think he will lead the Arizona Cardinals in receptions this year. However, I don't see him catching two TD's every week. Last year Fitz caught more than half of his total touchdowns in the first three games of the season. He's off to another fast start and led the team in targets with 10 but Arizona has too many weapons. Michael Floyd was second on the team in targets with seven and looked good. They also have one of the best three down backs in the league, David Johnson, who was third on the team in targets with six. I think Fitz will have another good year just not as good as last year.
Willie Snead: If the Saints could play the Raiders every week then Snead would be a top 3 WR. Unfortunately, they aren't even in the same Conference. They will not see each other again this season because neither team is going to the Super Bowl. Snead is coming off a breakout season in which he caught 69 passes for 984 yards. He's in for another strong year after going off for 172 yards in Week 1. However, Brandin Cooks will lead the team statistically for the Saints WR's most weeks. The hardest part about Snead will be predicting which weeks to start him, but your guess will be as good as mine.
Spencer Ware: He had a good first week. Perhaps a little too good. Time is limited for Ware. Jamaal Charles is getting closer to game speed every week and you better believe he will assume his feature back role. Ware has carved a role out to spell Charles this season after splitting the back field with Charcandrick West last season when Charles went down. He rushed for 70 yards and a TD while catching 7 passes for an eye popping 129 yards in Week 1 but I don't see that happening again. He's probably got another week as the top dog but after that I foresee a 70/30 split workload in favor of Charles. If no one is biting though I wouldn't mind hanging onto him in case the aging Charles falls victim to another injury.
Well there it is, the guys I think entering Week 2 that are being over valued or undervalued. I'm a firm believer in Championships are won on waivers. However, all of these guys are on rosters in your league so you will need to orchestrate a trade... which is an art but so is buying low and selling high. Good luck this week and as always, may your team outscore its predictions.