by Rob Schwarz (@chiruxinDFS)
How did you enjoy Week one of the DRAFT app? I did not win much, but my calls were decent. The problems included guys like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell struggling (and getting hurt). More problems with the quarterbacks as Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady were outplayed by Sam Bradford and Trevor Siemian. These things happen. Do not sway though. Trust the process as guys revert to the mean.
As I write this, Andy Dalton went from turning the ball over five times in Week one (yuck) to his average and not turning it over in Week two. We shouldn’t completely ignore the first week, but we need to trust that guys who performed before will likely perform again. Going off course usually costs people money. Going back to the well is how many expert DFS players win big!
So let us take a look at who you should target this week. If you need a description of how this works, go back and read my Week one article here.
As I said last week, you can wait at quarterback. Guys like Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford outperformed the top three quarterbacks. So going Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady early do not always work. In fact, Alex Smith was likely not even played in majority of leagues and he led all QBs in scoring for Week 1. So who should we look to this week?
1. Tom Brady, NE
Brady led his team to three touchdowns last game, but the Patriots still lost. The problem is, the touchdowns were all rushing touchdowns. I guarantee Brady is pissed about losing in Week one. The Saints have a potent offense and the Patriots defense looked bad against the Chiefs. I would put my money on the Patriots winning this game and Brady should come out swinging. New Orleans let up the third most points to the quarterback position in Week one. That quarterback was Sam Bradford. Enough said.
2. Derek Carr
Carr looked good against the Titans and he has an even easier opponent this week. The Jets let up the fourth most points to the QB position in Week one. They faced off against Tyrod Taylor and the lowly Buffalo Bills. Carr and Oakland put up 26 points with two passing touchdowns against Tennessee last week. Carr has a way of dominating weak defenses and I like him for three touchdowns on Sunday.
Others to consider:
Drew Brees, NO; Matt Ryan, ATL; Aaron Rodgers, GB; Matthew Stafford, DET
With David Johnson out, Le’Veon Bell should be the first back off the board in most drafts. Bell should bounce back this week, but the matchup is not a good one. Minnesota is a tough defense and Bell will have his work cut out for him. I’d consider Bell later, but he’s not my favorite back this week.
1. Ty Montgomery, GB
The Falcons are the worst against the running back position among all four phases. In 2016, they were 25 in DVOA against the pass to the running back position. Montgomery proved he can be an every down back in Week one. He played well out of the backfield and running free for passes in the flat. I think he eats in Week two as the Packers take care of the Falcons.
2. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
Eliott is still suiting up to play this week (as of now) and I like him against the Broncos. People will shy away from him when they see Denver slotted as his opponent. Do not fear and enjoy drafting him later for more value. Elliott had 140 all-purpose yards in Week one against the Giants - a team that gave up the seventh most points to the running back position last week. Denver gave up the eighth most points.
Others to Consider:
Le’Veon Bell, PIT; Devonta Freeman, ATL; Marshawn Lynch, OAK; Dalvin Cook, MIN;
Just like Le’Veon Bell, I think Antonio Brown is a solid option at receiver this week. He will be going up against the same Minnesota defense. A defense that shut down the Saints’ passing attack. Therefore, I’d pass on AB this week and grab a running back early. I’d follow up with one of these guys instead.
1. Brandin Cooks, NE (or if ballsy - Chris Hogan)
Cooks will be facing off against a Saints defense that was destroyed by Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen in Week one. The Saints allowed the second most points to the number one receiver and the most points to the number two receiver. The Saints struggled in 2016 against the top receiver too. Fire up Cooks and, if possible, I’d try pairing him with Brady.
2. Amari Cooper, OAK
The next guy up on my list is Amari Cooper. I know, I know. He has Michael Crabtree to compete with for targets. I do not think it matters. Cooper was the one to see the touchdown in Week one and I think this is the year things start to shift. The Jets did not let up many fantasy points to receivers in Week one but do not let that fool you. Buffalo is a run-first offense. Oakland is much more balanced. The receiving corp and quarterback are better for a passing attack too. In 2016, the Jets were 25th in DVOA to the top receivers. I do not think they improve on that number this season.
Others to Consider
Julio Jones, ATL; Antonio Brown, PIT; Stefon Diggs, MIN; Mike Evans, TB; Michael Thomas, NO
Remember...the DRAFT app does not require you to play a tight end. I tried rolling out Rob Gronkowski in a few lineups last week and it did not work. In fact, it bit me and I did not cash on any of those. I would consider him again though and here is why.
1. Rob Gronkowski, NE
The Vikings scored a red zone touchdown by throwing to Kyle Rudolph and Gronk is much more talented than Rudolph. The Saints were 22nd in DVOA last year and after Week 1, they gave up the eighth most fantasy points to the tight end.
Other tight ends outplayed Gronkowski in Week one. However, it was guys like Austin Hooper and Zach Ertz. Personally, I am going to continue to only play Gronkowski as my tight end, or I will just play two receivers. The likelihood of the two receivers outperforming any tight end I choose has a much higher probability.
Others to Consider:
Greg Olsen, CAR; Jordan Reed, WAS; Eric Ebron
That is all I have for Week two. If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@ChiRuxinDFS) or reach out to the @FLAFFLHouse account. If you like the content, please like, retweet and share elsewhere! Best of luck in Week two!