#DoingThings: A Gut Feeling Article

by Jason Tran (@jasontran) and Derek McCreath (@TheFFRx)

Just to give you a little intro to what to expect, this series will have a streaming type feel to it. As with most things in the FLAFFL House though, it will have a competitive component. Each week Jason and I are going to pick one player and build a brief summary as to why you should start them.  The one caveat to this however is the player chosen MUST not be leading their team in any fantasy relevant statistical category (read: score points, therefore targets not included) at their respective position. For example, while Chris Ivory could be a slam dunk pick this week, he currently leads the Jacksonville running backs with 16 receptions, therefore he does not qualify.

Whichever player scores more points that week will win the challenge. We will be using points per reception (PPR) scoring for this contest. The penalty for the person who picks the lower scoring player is a 48 hour Twitter avatar bet with the avatar being voted on by the twitter population.

Derek’s pick to #DoThings:

The player I am going to recommend this week is currently sitting second on his team in receptions with 26, only two receptions behind the team leader. He is third in receiving yards with 246. Earlier today I was listening to JJ Zachariason on the The Late Round Podcast and he mentioned that this player has the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) on his team of 4.8 yards. The second lowest aDOT on the team is 9.8 yards, a full five yards further.

Why should this make you want to start this player?  Well, this player's team is missing some key offensive lineman and likely it’s likely their QB will be under pressure often. I don’t have the numbers to back that statement up (not my style unless I heard/read it somewhere) but it’s a Gut Feeling article…just go with it. Not to mention, this QB has been a backup for three years and certainly wasn’t expecting to play anytime soon.  He was previously behind, arguably, the best QB currently playing the game in Aaron Rodgers. I’m not here to pass judgement on Brett Hundley as we haven’t seen enough from him yet.  Like I said though, he was playing behind Rodgers so he may have learned a thing or two. If Hundley is getting pressured a lot he is going to be looking to dump it off quickly.  Who better to look to than someone who isn’t far past the line of scrimmage in his routes?

 

Okay, so you may have guessed it, but Randall Cobb is going to be out there #DoingThings this week. Sure, the Packers are playing the Saints, who we all know don’t have a strong defense. They do have 16 sacks on the season already though. Given the packers O-line injuries and a young QB coming in with only one week prep when he likely didn’t expect to be starting for years, I think Cobb eats this week. Oh, and just one more thing about Cobb, despite being second in receptions, he only has one touchdown on the season. Adams has five and Nelson has six. If Hundley is looking his way often, like I expect he will, there is reason to believe he will see some progression there and start scoring some TD’s. Get ready to change your avi Jason, because Cobb will most definitely be #DoingThings.

Jason’s Pick to #DoThings:

Well la dee da.  Look at Derek with his fancy stats on why you should play a guy who has the worst starting QB this week throwing to him. It turns out, picking a guy who qualifies for this article is a little more difficult than when I thought it up (seriously, try to find someone). That being said, I am also going with a wide receiver this week. My choice for this week that will be #DoingThings, is Arizona Cardinals wide receiver, John Brown.

After suffering an injury in week one and missing two games this season, Brown was finally taken off the injury report, deeming him fully healthy. Since he has returned, Brown has not only out snapped both J.J. Nelson and Jaron Brown, but has also been targeted more than both. Brown is also coming off back to back games scoring red zone touchdowns which is a huge boost for him, considering Larry Fitzgerald is on the field.

Here’s my not so fancy statistics to enforce my choice. The Cardinals currently rank first in passing attempts and third in passing yards. My only concern is that their opponent, the Rams, have a way worse run defense than pass defense. This could lead to a game like last week where the Cardinals let Adrian Peterson run loose. All that being said, I expect this game to be a high scoring affair. Vegas agrees with me giving it the third highest point total for the week.