It's me. It's me. It's that C H E Z. Back again with the DK Outlook. As we do every week, we look back at last week's calls...
Week 13 Recap
As my fans know, each week I highlight three players at each position. In Week 13, my 3 quarterbacks totaled a whopping 23.18 DraftKings points. That’s a 7.73 per player. David Johnson and Jordan Howard were good calls. The only other noteworthy things from my article last week was in my flex zone, I had Ladarius Green and Malcolm Mitchell. Overall a really bad week.
Normally is the time where I say some lousy jokes and some other goofy things, but this week I'm doing something a little different. I was driving home from work the other day, and I got into an accident. My beautiful 1998 Acura Integra is now basically dead. That makes me sad thankfully, I'm not too banged up, I've got the good old probable tag so I will be good to go on Sunday. I bring this up for a few reasons. 1) For the love of Pete, wear seat belts, and don't use your cell phone while driving. 2) Be grateful for the life you have because it certainly can disappear in the blink of an eye. 3) I really need to take down a GPP. Cars aren't cheap.
Colin Kaepernick ($5,800 vs NYJ)
I know, I know. Colin Kaepernick completed 0 passes in the first quarter, and just one in the game before getting benched. A pretty short leash for a guy who has been rock solid for the past 6 games. Last week, there were a plentiful amount of options at quarterback. This week there isn’t a single play I love. This obviously isn’t a cash play, but with the Jets pass defense ranking 32nd in DVOA, Kaepernick is a guy you will want to be overweight on. Also don’t forget, he looks like Squidward… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cv90ZXjOhhU
Kirk Cousins ($6,300 @ PHI)
YOU LIKE THAT!?!?! Kirk is one of a small amount of quarterbacks to score more DraftKings points on the road than at home this season. He's hit cash value in 10 of his last 11 games. The Eagles pass defense ranks 4th in DVOA, but they've been embarrassed the last two games. The Eagles are on a downward spiral and we should pounce on them. I LIKE THAT!
Matthew Stafford ($6,800 vs CHI)
Stafford averages less points at home than on the road. Not many quarterbacks can say that. He is in Detroit this week and DraftKings says this is a red matchup. In 6 home games this season, Stafford has just 1 interception. The Lions are not going to go 0-2 against the Chicago Bears this season, meaning Stafford should be airing it out against a Bears defense that is falling apart and ranks 27th against the deep ball.
David Johnson ($9,800 @ MIA)
I wrote his name down before I even looked at who he was playing. This is absolutely insane...Last 4 weeks, David Johnson is averaging 21.4 DraftKings points per game. Just receiving. 85.7 DraftKings points just receiving in his last 4 games. WOW. They could make his price another grand and I'd still get him in my cash lineups. The guy is the best DraftKings player in 2016. Better than Russell Westbrook.
Jeremy Hill ($5,800 @ CLE)
The Browns have the worst defense in team DVOA. 29th on the ground, 31st in the air. Hill has 5 career games against the Browns. He has 95+ yards and a touchdown in three games. The. Bengals are 6 point favorites so they should be pounding the rock. The last 4 meetings between these teams have ended with 14+ victories by the Bengals and we should expect more of the same here.
This group: Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray.
Is this cheating? Maybe but what can I say, https://youtu.be/YmdASyfTIDk These are all very talented players in decent spots that will be overlooked. The Giants defense is not the same without JPP. The Panthers have given up on the season so they'll let Melvin Gordon do what he wants. LeSean McCoy’s ownership should be low due to people being scared of “The Gills” and the Steelers run defense is #NotGood. Even DeMarco Murray has a favorable matchup going against the Denver Broncos who we've seen in the past aren't the best at stopping the run. It would be a mistake to fade anyone of these high tier backs.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,000 vs DAL)
Y'all remember that beautiful Sunday night a few years back. The Dallas Cowboys came to MetLife stadium and won, but the highlight of that game was an unimaginable touchdown grab by Odell. I remember. Brandon Carr probably does too. Beckham likes to show off in prime time, and against the Cowboys 27th ranked pass defense in DVOA, Beckham should EAT.
Jamison Crowder ($5,600 @ PHI)
He has one game this season with less than 11.8 DraftKings points. He's the Eric Decker of 2016. Just rock him in cash and go on your way. Week in and week out, he's one of the safest players on the board. It also helps that the Eagles secondary is 24th in DVOA against the deep ball.
Emmanuel Sanders ($5,700 @ TEN)
All bets are off if Paxton Lynch is under center, but if Siemian is good to go fire up Manny. He's got 8 or more targets in all but one game this season. He can get you 30 points since he's done it twice this season. His price is the lowest it's been since week one. We should jump on this. The Titans rank 30th in DVOA against WR2s.
Before we get to tight ends, quick break to plug housemoneyfantasy.com the place for daily NBA DFS slate breakdowns. Also weekly NFL articles, and a videocast that can be seen live thursday nights on youtube! Ok back to the planned stuff.
Antonio Gates ($3,800 @ CAR)
The Panthers secondary has been bad all season long. They rank 28th in DraftKings points allowed to tight ends. 22nd in DVOA against tight ends. These numbers are from the whole season. They don't take into consideration the fact that the Panthers have given up on this season. Gates has a lot of work to do to catch Tony Gonzalez. I think he finds the end zone here. I think old tight ends are apart of my brand. Whatever.
Speaking of old tight ends...
Jason Witten ($3,100 @ NYG)
The Giants just let Ladarius Green go BONKERS against them. At this point in their careers, Green is the better athlete, but Witten should still be able to play well against a Giants defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the tight end. In his 27 career games against the Giants, Witten averages 14 DraftKings points per game. That's pretty good.
Jermaine Gresham ($2,500 @ MIA)
Hey I found a guy who's not old! He's 28! Woohoo. He's been priced at the the minimum all season. He's hit 3x four straight weeks. No upside here, but he'll get you 7+ points and if he gets a touchdown you're golden.
This is getting long… time to save time.
Minnesota Vikings ($3,900 @ JAX)
If you blindly selected the defense going against Blake Bortles, on average you get 9 points. The Vikings defense is really good. I may go 100% on this defense.
That's how to save time. One defense. Play Them. For the one or two lineups I may not use them I will use the Dolphins, because Carson Palmer sucks.
THE FLEX ZONE
Ted ******* Ginn Jr. ($4,000 vs SD)
Shane Vereen ($4,000 vs DAL)
CJ Fiedorowicz ($3,900 @ IND)
Isaiah Crowell ($3,900 vs CIN)
TY Montgomery($3,900 vs SEA)
Ladarius Green ($3,900 @ BUF)
Jerick McKinnon ($3,600 @ JAX)
Joshua Bellamy ($3,500 @ DET)
Duke Johnson Jr. ($3,500 vs CIN)
Robby Anderson ($3,000 @ SF)
Now for the moment you've all been waiting for... The Kicker Play of the Day sponsored by House Money Fantasy. House Money Fantasy, where our advice is like playing with house money!
Matt Prater! vs Chicago
Here's a nice little GPP Lineup I'll be rocking. Best of Luck FLAFFL!
QB - Kirk Cousins
RB - David Johnson
RB - Jeremy Hill
WR - Emmanuel Sanders
WR - Jamison Crowder
WR - Sammy Watkins
TE - Antonio Gates
FLEX - Jerick McKinnon
D/ST - Vikings