Draftkings Outlook Week 5

Written by Matt Perdichizzi, goes by @cheezi on the Fantasy Life App & now @cheezi_FL on Twitter

So I was a week off on Chris Conley showing up. I still consider that a win. Some of the things that made my article last week couldn't have been more on point. For example: 'Expect one of those ridiculous AJ Green lines in this one.' 2 of my 3 QBs hit (Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles), 2 of my 3 RBs hit (Ezekiel Elliott and LeVeon Bell), 2 of 3 of my TEs hit (Jordan Reed and Hunter Henry), and 2 of 3 of my DEFs hit (Bills and Bengals) I consider that a solid week. Unfortunately, The Julio happened so I didn't have the best week....

We are now a quarter of the way done with the regular season. Here are some interesting trends in a mini segment I will call 'Through Four Weeks' (T4W)

T4W, Matt Ryan has 1473 passing yards. 16 game pace-5892. Breaking News: that's a lot. (SELL)

T4W, Ryan Fitzpatrick has 10 interceptions. He's on pace for 40, 40!

T4W, Ezekiel Elliott has ONE HUNDRED touches. That's a 16 game pace of 400 touches. Oh yeah, and his 456 totals yards are on pace for 1824. (BUY)

Last season Melvin Gordon had 108 PPR fantasy points. T4W this season he has 80. (BUY)

T4W, DeMarco Murray has had 21+ Draftkings points in each game. (BUY)

T4W, Mike Evans has FIFTY targets (leads NFL). That's a 16 game pace of 200 targets. (BUY)

T4W, Golden Tate doesn't have 100 receiving yards, TOTAL. (CUT)

T4W, Martellus Bennett has two games with 100+ yards, and has two games with less than 15 yards. (IDK!!!)

T4W,  if you used whatever defense went against the Colts, you would total 42 points. That would be tied for 4th. (STREAM VS LUCK)

T4W, Stephen Gostowski has 30 points. Good for 19th among kickers. (Don't draft kickers/Don't play in leagues with kickers).

Now that you've heard some interesting things, let's dive into Week 5

Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz ($6,400 @ DET)- In his first 3 career games, he's been very very not bad. 5 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. Brian Hoyer just had a career day versus the Detroit Lions. The Lions allow the second most points to the quarterback position. Carson Wentz will be my cash game QB, and at this price, I may go all in, and use a ton of him in GPP. 

Brian Hoyer ($5,500 @ IND)- If $6,400 is too rich for your blood (which it shouldn't be this week) throw in Brian Hoyer who heads to Indianapolis who are traveling from London. Shouldn't they have a bye? That doesn't seem fair. The Jaguars have a bye. Whatever. Hoyer has had 4x value in his two starts, and I would expect another one.  

Tom Brady ($7,500 @ CLE)- A little strange that I'm picking 3 road QBs, but it's Tom Brady. I don't have any stats to say other then the Browns are TURRIBLE. Angry Tom may throw the ball 60 times and nobody would bat an eye. A Brady-Gronk stack in a 10x game sounds good to me.

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray ($7,200 @ MIA)- Murray had his first game with 22+ touches (27) this season and had his 4th game with more than 21 points. His price has continued to steadily increase since Week 1 and I have continually been using him. He had his worse receiving game of the season with just 2 for 24, but his involvement in the pass game keeps his floor high. Expect another heavy dosage of DeMarco and returning value again.

Jordan Howard ($5,200 @ IND)- In his first true start, Howard had quite a game: 26 touches and 132 total yards. The Colts are allowing the 5th most points to running backs. If he gets 20 touches in Indy, he'll likely get 4x value. He'll make my cash lineup.

LeVeon Bell ($7,500 vs NYJ)- Some had some concern that DeAngelo Williams would eat into Bell's usage. Williams scored a meaningless TD in this game. Bell had 23 touches and 178 yards and his return. Even in a tough match-up with the Jets 5th best defense versus RBs, you gotta use some Juice. He may not be the sharpest tool in the shed, but he's a flat out stud when he plays.

Wide Receivers

Randall Cobb ($6,200 vs NYG)- This feels a lot like Allen Hurns last week. Number 2 receiver on a good passing offense in a good match-up off to a slow start, but rights the ship this week. Hurns didn't exactly do that, but I think Cobb gets on track this week playing on Sunday night at Lambeau. The Giants are traveling on a short week after playing a fun game with Minnesota. Cobb was a stud a few years ago, and whether he returns to that or not, this week he will look like Cobb of old.

Steve Smith Sr. ($5,300 vs WAS)- I was on Smith last week and that paid off pretty well for me. He went off last week in a good match-up (8-111-1) and draws another favorable match-up with the Redskins. Ravens coming home after a heart breaking defeat from the Raiders will come out hungry and Joe Flacco likes this Steve Smith character. I expect another solid day for the 37 year old.  

Mike Evans ($7,500 @ CAR)- What I thought was a tough match-up, Julio Jones had 300 yards. 300 yards. Mike Evans has 50 targets T4W. If he gets his 12.5 targets this week, it is very likely he returns value and with his skill set can likely put up half of what The Julio did, which is still great.

Tight Ends

Cameron Brate ($2,900 @ CAR)- This list of tight ends with 3 receptions is probably pretty short, but Cameron Brate would be on it. He's averaging 4 catches, 40 yards, and .5 touchdowns a game. So he can return value even without a touchdown, which in a match-up with the Panthers I believe he can. Panthers rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to the position, and here's the tight ends they've gone against; Virgil Green, Vance McDonald, Kyle Rudolph, and Jacob Tamme. Expect 3x value at a minimum for the Harvard graduate, and if he finds the end zone you're golden.

Rob Gronkowski ($6,500 @ CLE) and Martellus Bennett ($3,700 @ CLE)- Pairing Gronk with Marty B is some risky business, but after the beatdown the Patriots were handed by the Bills this team could have one of THOSE games. Browns allowing the third most points to the position, using either of these guys or both is viable in both cash and GPP games.

Hunter Henry ($3,300 @ OAK) or Antonio Gates ($4,000 @ OAK)- If Antonio Gates wants to get theses touchdowns, he's gotta get a move on! With the current state of this team, going for these Gates touchdowns seems like the team's only goals. Oakland gives up a lot of yards through the air (1,330 yards). If Gates plays use him, if he doesn't throw in HUNTER HEARST HENRY. 

THE FLEX ZONE
Newish addition to the Cheezi DFS Experience...Cheap guys to throw interesting some lineups.

Jerrick McKinnon ($4,000 vs HOU)- He's had 17+ touches in both games since Adrian Peterson went down. He's likely to reach that number again, and home for this average running defense, McKinnon should easily return value.

Duke Johnson Jr. ($4,100 vs NE)- Expect the Patriots to be up which should mean a lot of passing situations which means a lot of THE DUKE!

Chris Hogan ($4,100) James White ($3,900), Danny Amendola ($3,900) (@ CLE)- Tom Brady is back which means you want pieces of this offense. One of these guys will hit. May even be Malcolm Mitchell ($3,000).

Dontrelle Inman ($4,100 @ OAK)- The Raiders give up a lot of yards through the air (have I said that). Inman had flashes last year and could become Rivers top target. It could happen.

Defenses

Chicago Bears ($2,200 @ IND)- If you didn't read my ground-breaking segment T4W, here's what I said about going against Andrew Luck...
'T4W,  if you used whatever defense went against the Colts, you would total 42 points. That would be tied for 4th. (STREAM VS LUCK)' Last week I may have said this about the Bears defense, "'I heard someone on the NFL Network actually call them 'Ungood'." but they did fine versus the Lions so I'll have some Bears exposure #BearDown.

Carolina Panthers ($3,300 vs TB)- I likely won't be rocking the Panthers in too many spots, but I'm supposed to put three guys in each spot so, if going dirt cheap isn't your style, Panthers defense is a safe option. Even in a game they allowed 48 points they had 7 draftkings points. They now go up against Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers who allow the second most points to defenses.

BUYER BEWARE!
Here's some guys I'm shying away from because I expect they don't return value…

QB: Matt Ryan ($7,100 @ DEN), Brock Osweiler ($5,300 @ MIN), Kirk Cousins ($6,100 @ BAL)

RB: Eddie Lacy ($5,900 vs NYG), Lamar Miller ($6,300), Isaiah Crowell ($4,800 vs NE)

WR: Julio Jones ($9,600 @ DEN), Golden Tate ($4,900 vs PHI), Alston Jeffery ($7,800 vs IND)

TE: Dwayne Allen ($3,100 vs CHI), Dennis Pitta ($4,100 vs WAS), CJ Fiedorowicz ($2,500 @ MIN)

DEF: New York Jets ($2,800 @ PIT), Cincinnati Bengals ($2,800 @ DAL), Detroit Lions ($2,500 vs PHI)

Here is my cash lineup...

Bears D, why do I do this to myself.

Best of luck in Week 5. Also lookout for the DFS Command Center Podcast!