That’s more like it! Steve gets on track with a huge week which proves that even a blind squirrel can find a nut. Shaun has continued his solid season as well. Since winter is coming, we’re going to need more nuts so let’s see where we stand:
And now, we’re on to week 13!
Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks (+6)
You can tell the confidence is booming because I’m going to pick against the high flying Eagles. They’ve been awesome and I’m not going to try and pretend otherwise. Philly is 5-0 against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) in their last five games. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road. They’re 8-0 ATS in their last eight overall. So yeah, they’re good. The Seahawks are having to redefine themselves, as the defense that usually dominates has been decimated by season ending injuries to key players. But Russell Wilson is still there and he’s putting the team on his back. We all know Seattle is a tough place to play but Seattle is 1-4 ATS in their last five games there. They’re coming off back to back home losses at the hands of Washington and Atlanta but have not lost three consecutive home games since 2008. I like those odds. If I were a brave man, I’d pick the upset but I’m getting points, and I’m not brave. You know what, screw that. I’m a man! I’m almost 32! Seahawks win 31-28 ON A BLAIR WALSH MADE FIELD GOAL.
Houston Texans (+7) @ Tennessee Titans
The cool thing about betting is that you can pick a game like this and not even have to watch the dreck that will take place on the field. Houston hasn’t been as exciting since we lost Watson for the year but they haven’t been terrible. The Titans don’t really have an excuse for what they’ve been but when you’re leading a division, you don’t really need one. Although, being 5-1 SU in their last six, they’re only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five. So they’re winning but they’re not covering. Seven points just seems like too much against a Houston team that is 7-3 ATS in their last 10. The Texans are also 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road and 7-1 ATS in their last eight against the Titans. Betting stat of the year: the Titans are 8-27-2 ATS in their last 37 games against a divisional opponent. That’s not good. Texans cover but the Titans win 23-17.
Carolina Panthers (+4.5) @ New Orleans Saints
The Panthers have been a solid bet all season but this one does have me a little weary. The Panthers came away with the win last week against the Jets while the Saints went to Los Angeles and found out that the Rams are legit again. They’re gonna be hungry for a win here and although I think they get it, I think it will be close. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS and SU in their last five games overall. I’m much more impressed by their 7-1 ATS record on the road in their last eight. Now, the Panthers are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last five against the Saints. All that tells me is that they’re due. Now the Saints are no slouch even after taking the loss last week. New Orleans is 6-3 ATS and 8-1 SU in their last nine games. I think we are in for a good old fashioned slobber-knocker here! Panthers cover but the Saints win 31-28.
Los Angeles Rams (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals
Don’t look now but here come the Rams. After their amazing start to the season, they showed the NFL they’re for real by beating the Saints last week. The Cardinals are doing what they can this year after losing David Johnson and Carson Palmer but it’s not going well. I know a touchdown on the road seems like a lot but I see a blowout coming. The Rams are 5-1 ATS and SU in their last six overall. They’re 4-1 SU in their last five on the road. Arizona on the other hand is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11. The Cardinals are 6-13-1 in their last 20 at home. They’re also 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against a divisional opponent. And finally, the favored team in this matchup is 3-1 ATS and SU in their last four meetings. Give me the Rams in a route 31-17.
New England (-9) @ Buffalo Bills
The Patriots wiped the floor with the lowly Dolphins in week 12. Turns out Matt Moore is only good in relief and forgets how to play when he is given the start. Buffalo pulled the upset on the struggling Chiefs. The Bills went back to Tyrod Taylor at quarterback and it paid off for them. He didn’t look great, but he didn’t throw five interceptions in one f-ing half either. The Pats are rolling, winning and covering the spread in five straight. They also have been successful in Buffalo over the years. They are 11-4-1 ATS in Buffalo during the Belichick/Brady era. The Bills defense has been terrible lately and I expect New England to light them up Sunday. Tyrod, LeSean McCoy and the boys will struggle to keep pace. Pats win 34-20.
Houston Texans (+7) @ Tennessee Titans
Tennessee had to come from behind to beat the pitifully terrible Colts on Sunday. Every time I see that the Titans are winning that division I think, HOW? The run game of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry hasn’t been any good. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has been barely mediocre, stifling any hopes of a Corey Davis breakout this year. The only reliable fantasy options have been old trusty Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews. Houston was competitive versus the Ravens Monday night. Lamar Miller was okay after briefly leaving the game injured but returned and finished the game. Savage was even alright and keeps making Hopkins owners happy by locking in and peppering him with targets. Tennessee has had a hard time against the familiar Texans losing and failing to cover in four of the last five. Titans win but in a close one 20-17.
Cleveland Browns @ LA Chargers (-14)
I’ve learned my lesson, no more picking the Browns. So here I am going against them again. They seemed determined to go 0-the season and have only covered the spread twice all year. The Chargers however are trending up. The defense has been getting to quarterbacks early and often and creating plenty of turnovers along the way. They shellacked the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now face the Browns on extra rest. Los Angeles looks to be charging into competition for that division as the Kansas City Chiefs have fallen off a cliff. The Browns have been bad SU and ATS all year, and with the Chargers being one of the hottest teams not named New England or Philadelphia, I’ll take them to rout the lowly Browns. Chargers win 30-13.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) @ Seattle Seahawks
This one hurts a little. I don’t want to bet against my Seahawks at home and especially in prime time. But I can’t help it. The Eagles are on fire. They destroyed the Bears 31-3 last week and made the whole Bears offense unusable in fantasy (thanks a lot Jordan Howard). Seattle cruised vs the CJ Beathard-led 49ers and may have triggered the start of the Jimmy Garoppolo era after injuring Beathard toward the end of the game. I think the Eagles will score points with ease against the crippled Seahawk defense. And if Seattle wants to keep pace they are going to have to score points (see wildcard). With zero run game to speak of, besides Wilson’s scrambling, I think my ‘Hawks will struggle to keep it close. Eagles win 36-27.
WildcardSteve - Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers OVER 48.5
Tampa Bay has had a rough season. They’ve dealt with more injuries than most teams, most notably Jameis Winston. He’s back this week, which should make Mike Evans owners happy (and Cameron Brate owners as well) as this offense tries to get back on track. They’re heading to Green Bay where that team is still dealing with a quarterback injury of their own. The big thing here is both defenses suck and both offenses should be able to move the ball. The total has gone OVER in six of Tampa’s last seven games on the road. The OVER has hit in six of the Packers’ last nine at home and in 14 of Green Bay’s last 18 overall. Expect a shootout here. Bucs win 28-24.
Shaun- Philadelphia Eagles @Seattle Seahawks OVER 47.5
I’ve already given you the ins and outs on this game so I will just say that I will be happy if Seattle keeps Philly under 35 and shocked if they keep them under 30. The 12th man will try to be an advantage, but unfortunately the crowd can’t help them play defense. No Richard Sherman. No Kam Chancellor. Seattle’s only shot at a win is in a shootout. Take the over.