Bettor's Corner: Week 12 Edition

By @sidskeat and @deadduck77

We just want to take a second, in this holiday season, to give thanks for all of you who have stuck around through Steve’s horrible picks this year. We know you don’t have to read this, but we appreciate you coming back week after week and giving us a chance. Shaun has made us proud here but dammit, things are going to change! Let’s start making some real money! So let’s see where we stand:

Last Week:

Steve: 2-2-1

Shaun: 3-2

Season Record:

Steve: 22-32-1

Shaun: 29-24-2

And now, we’re on to week 12!

Steve’s Picks

Carolina Panthers (-5) @ New York Jets

Seems like it’s been awhile since we last saw these teams and that’s because it has. Carolina and New York are both coming off of their byes this week which means both teams should be well rested and ready to go. The Panthers are getting a huge asset back in Greg Olsen and that should help a team that has started to surge and needs to keep up with the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons as they charge towards a potential playoff spot. Both of these teams have been solid bets this year with Carolina going 5-2 ATS in their last seven and the Jets going 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight. The Jets are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home. So why am I taking the Panthers? Well, basically it’s because Carolina is 10-2 SU in their last 12 road games against a team with a losing record while the Jets are 1-5 SU in their last six against NFC teams. I don’t think these teams match up well and feel Carolina is ready to explode. Carolina takes this one 27-17.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ San Francisco 49ers

It’s that time of year again. Post-Thanksgiving time is Seahawks time and Seattle has already seemed to get things started (now only if they could get a kicker who’s worth a damn). Because the defense has taken a few big blows over the last couple weeks, it’s now fully the Russell Wilson show and he’s gonna be putting on a clinic on Sunday. The last time we saw these teams match up it was a surprisingly close contest in Seattle and I don’t think the boys from the Pacific Northwest have forgotten. Now Seattle is only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall but in their last seven they are 5-2 SU. I just don’t think a touchdown is enough here. The 49ers are only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 at home and 1-11 SU in that same time frame. There’s blood in the water and I think Seattle knows they have to win this one to keep pace with the surprising LA Rams. Seattle wins this one running away 34-16.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-8)

Well, well, well, it would appear that Shaun and I disagree on this one a little bit (which ultimately means you can stop reading here and skip down to Shaun’s take). Although the Browns have looked...not absolutely terrible lately, this is what they do. They seem to be making some headway and then they get sad and start missing the times when they get absolutely drubbed. I think that’s what’s about to happen. The Bengals are riding high after leaving Mile High with a win over a withering Broncos team and they have the playoffs in mind. Although Cincinnati is only 2-4 ATS in their last six home contests, it’s the Browns. Cleveland is bringing a 1-8 ATS record in their last nine to town and that includes a 0-4-1 ATS on the road. Cleveland bettors have been stung by late beats and I can see a late pick six putting this one up into the cover zone for the Bengals. Cincinnati covers this one late and wins 31-17.

Buffalo Bills (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs

I don’t know what the hell Sean McDermott was thinking benching Tyrod Taylor last week but his comments following the drubbing didn’t make things any better. Ultimately Tyrod came back, proved his point, and won his job back. The Chiefs went into MetLife in what was supposed to be a get right game against the Giants and they ended up escaping with a FG-fueled win. Both of these teams seem to be heading in the wrong direction at this point in the season and that’s why I have this game here. Getting 10 points is just too much for this Chiefs team. Now KC does sport a 4-2 ATS record at home in their last six but overalls, the Chiefs are only 1-4 ATS and SU in their last five contests. Now the Bills haven’t fared much better, bringing a1-4-1 ATS record with them in their last six. I think Tyrod still has something to prove and it’s apparent now that he’s already auditioning for other teams *cough* Denver *cough*. The Bills cover but KC wins 21-17.

Shaun's picks

Cleveland Browns (+8) @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals covered last week, but it was a surprisingly competitive game vs the Brock Lobster led Broncos. Cleveland took a loss to the Jags in a low scoring mess due to the crappy weather in Cleveland. I can’t believe I’m going back to the well with the Browns. Every time I put them in this article they screw me. Every statistic that exists on the internet about the Browns is negative so there is nothing to back me up. But I feel like Kizer has not been terrible the last few weeks. Duke Jr has been pretty good, and Corey Coleman returned last week and had a decent day against the vaunted Jaguars passing D. So I think eight points is too many for the lowly Bengals to be favored by in any matchup. Bengals win 20-16.

Buffalo Bills (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Well that was interesting. The “Peterman Experiment” lasted all of a half and resulted in more interceptions than Tyrod had all year, five to be exact. It really looked like he wasn’t sure which team he played for. Tyrod played the second half and showed that if he had started this could have been a competitive game instead of a 40 point beat down. Even more surprising was that they wouldn’t commit to starting Tyrod for this week until Wednesday. The Chiefs have been in a free fall losing four out of their last five, losing to the damn Giants last week. THE GIANTS!! What the hell? Alex Smith, once playing like an MVP candidate, has reverted back to his dink and dunk ways and Hunt, who once looked like a rookie of the year lock, has struggled recently too. The Bills are 11-1-1 ATS in their last thirteen after consecutive losses. I look for them to at least keep it close against the struggling Chiefs. Kansas City wins 26-20.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee received a Thursday night beat down courtesy of the Steelers in prime time. The Colts are coming off a bye. Tennessee is a surprising 6-4 and get just what the doctor ordered to stay in the hunt for the division, a matchup with the lowly Colts. The Titans secondary is pretty bad although I’m not sure the Colts have the tools or the motivation to exploit it. Seems like any win they get just hurts their draft spot as they are playing for nothing else. I look for Mariota to look great in this game and Tennessee to put up a flurry of points inside Lucas Oil Stadium and outpace the Colts who are already ready for the offseason. Titans win 31-20.

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) @ LA Rams

The Saints kept the streak going, storming back late to send their game with Washington into overtime and then finishing the job. The Rams went right down the field and scored on their first drive vs the Vikings on Sunday then failed to score another point. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the Rams have been a fluke, yet I’m not sure they have what it takes to hang with the class of the NFC. New Orleans, while typically considered a good home team, are 9-2 ATS on the road over the last two seasons. The ground game the Saints have found since shipping Peterson to the desert is the stuff championships are made of. Not to mention they still have a Hall of Fame QB at the helm to boot. Saints win 38-33.

Wildcard

Steve- Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 46.5

I’ve already gone over this game so I won’t continue to bore you here. I think these are two teams heading in the wrong direction at this point in the season and will be looking to control this game. I know both teams have things to prove but each will be going for the win which to me will mean long, boring, controlled drives. Like I said, Bills cover but the Chiefs win and the UNDER hits 21-17.

Shaun - Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets OVER 40

I’m hoping weather doesn’t screw me on this one. Both of these teams are coming off the bye so no real bounce backs or anything to count on. Just the fact that both of these offenses are fairly competent. The total has gone UNDER in three of the last four meetings between these two teams but this is a small number that just screams take the over. Again, I will say watch the weather but as long as nothing crazy is going on I see no reason both of these teams can’t get to twenty points. Panthers win 26-23.