Bettor's Corner: Week 11 Edition

By Steven Marcuz (@sidskeat) and Shaun Meyer (@deadduck77)

Wow, this season has been brutal. Just when things seem to be turning around (for Shaun at least) we got slapped down hard in week 10. Steve might need to be checked on if things continue this way. But the season rolls on and so must we. My old man has a killer set of tools, we can fix it. So let’s see where we stand:

Last Week:

Steve: 0-5

Shaun: 2-3

Season Record:

Steve: 20-30

Shaun: 26-22-2

And now, we’re on to week 11!

Steve’s Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) @ New York Giants

I’m usually not a huge fan of taking big road favorites but I have to start trying something different.  I mean, have you seen my record this year? Taking one can’t hurt, especially when it seems like a perfect storm. The Chiefs are fresh off a bye week while the Giants are licking their wounds after getting walloped by the then previously winless 49ers. The team looks like it’s given up (apart from Sterling Shepard, my binkie) and that’s not what you want when you have a good team like the Chiefs coming into town. The Chiefs are 9-2 against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) in their last 11 on the road while the Giants don’t have what we like to call “home field advantage”. They’re only 1-4 ATS and SU in their last five at home. And don’t get me started on Andy Reid teams after the bye week. If the Rams can put up 51, the Chiefs can put up 30 easy and the Giants will be trying to catchup. Kansas City wins this one big 37-17.

Washington (+9) @ New Orleans Saints

You see picks like this and it’s not hard to see why I’m struggling so much this season. But hear me out! I know the Saints have been great this year. Many think they’re the most balanced team in the league and have become popular Super Bowl picks. But Washington is no slouch either despite what their record says. And they’re pretty darn good on the road where, just two weeks ago, they went into Seattle and walked out with a win. I’m not sure I want to go that far for this matchup but I do think the Saints are laying too many points. Although Washington is only 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 on the road. That’s sustained success away from FedEx field. I have nothing bad to say about New Orleans as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven and 4-1 SU in their last five at home. I think they win again but not in blowout fashion. Washington covers but the Saints win 31-24.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (+3)

Football is funny. The Bears are funny. They are good at home. We’ve seen that already this year as they almost beat the Falcons in week one and took out the Steelers when they came to town. But when the Packers come in with Brett Hundley under center they all of the sudden forget how to play defense. Well, I’m back at the well again and am taking the Bears getting points at home. The Lions had a bit of a battle against the lowly Browns last week.  They ended up running away with it (like most teams do) but will have a much harder task this week in a place they don’t typically do well. The Lions are only 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Bears and 2-3-1 in their last five playing in Chicago. The Bears have actually been a good Vegas team this year, going 4-1 ATS in their last five overall but sporting an 8-2 ATS record at home in their last 10. I’ll take the Bears to win this one straight up 24-21.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)

The Bills have spent the last two weeks getting their asses handed to them and apparently Tyrod Taylor gets to be the fall guy. He’s been benched and the Peterman era in Buffalo is underway. For his first test, he gets to head out west to visit a Chargers team who has been playing much better the last few weeks. Philip Rivers is currently in the concussion protocol but has been practicing in full and should be ready to roll on Sunday. After seeing what the Saints just did to Buffalo on the ground I think Melvin Gordon shows up this week too. Before the quarterback change for Buffalo, they were already a bad road bet, going 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 SU in their last six away from Ralph Wilson. And I’ll end on this obscure stat: the Chargers are 7-0 SU in their last seven home games after consecutive road games. Chargers win this one 24-13.

Shaun's picks

Arizona Cardinals (pick) @ Houston Texans

Arizona kept it close against Seattle last Thursday night. Drew Stanton peppered Larry Fitzgerald with targets to stay competitive against the limping Seahawks defense. But now it’s Yo Gabba Gabbert time!! I actually like Blaine Gabbert to give this offense a spark and hope for fantasy sake the he knows his success depends on getting the ball to number 11. Houston looked competitive last week through half the game, trailing 9-7 at halftime. It was all for not as they had their doors blown off in the second half by the high scoring Rams. This is a game between two not very good teams but I believe the Cardinals situation is slightly better than Houston’s. I think Gabbert can use his legs to keep drives alive and I think they outplay the Texans. Cardinals win 20-17.

Washington Redskins (+9) @ New Orleans Saints

Washington beat me last week but I’m doubling down. They faced a red hot Minnesota offense and Case Keenum had his career best game. Thielen and Diggs both found the end zone and the Vikings won with the air attack. The Saints rolled the Bills and made them look so bad they are benching Tyrod Taylor. Meanwhile, New Orleans has flipped the script on what they have been the last few years and are winning with defense and a stout run game. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have both been putting up RB1 numbers and after an 0-2 start have won seven straight. I think that the Saints continue their winning ways but I feel like the spread is just too large. Washington is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games and I look for them to at least make a game out of it. Saints win 30-24.

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos

The Broncos took the beat down that was expected as they let Brock Osweiler lead them into battle against the Patriots.  Strangely, they are trusting him again this week against the Bengals. The Bengals lost a close one against the Titans in a game that saw them give up a late lead. I’m kind of surprised that any team starting Osweiler is favored over anyone besides maybe the Browns or Texans. The Broncos typically struggle this time of year going 2-7 ATS in their last nine in the month of November. The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. I like AJ Green, Joe Mixon, and Dandy Andy Dalton to go into Mile High and come away with the win. But stats and info aside, I’ve found betting against Osweiler usually turns out pretty nice.  Bengals win 22-20.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Dallas began the Zekeless era and it didn’t look great. Dak Prescott was under pressure a lot getting sacked a ton and the offense struggled against the Falcons. Philadelphia has been on fire and are coming off of their bye.  Hopefully they have not forgot how to play like so many teams coming off the bye have this year. Zach Ertz should be back and Jay Ajayi has had a few weeks of practice now to acclimate to the offense. There is a saying that good teams win, but great teams cover. Well the Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their nine games. The Cowboys are 3-10 ATS at home in their last thirteen in November and the road team in this matchup is 8-3 in the last 11 games in the series. Philadelphia wins 30-20.

Wildcard

Steve - Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Giants OVER 46

Last time we saw the Giants they were getting shown how to play football by a then winless team in San Francisco. When we saw them the week before, they let the Rams drop a 50-burger on them. The Chiefs are coming off of a bye week and I think they go off. I don’t think they’ll cover the total themselves like the Rams did, but they’ll do enough to make this an easy over. I already said the Chiefs win 34-17.

Shaun - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns OVER 37

Cleveland gave the Lions (and fans hoping for the number one pick) a scare last week when it looked like they may pull off their first win. They righted the ship though and Detroit came back to put the Browns back in the losing column. Jacksonville needed overtime to beat the Chargers last week in a weird game. Blake Bortles looked like Bortles: terrible accuracy, two picks, run game struggled. And yet somehow they still pulled out the win. I see Leonard Fournette getting back on track this week, but also look for the Browns to stay in the game. Jags win 24-20.