Bettor's Corner: Week 5 Edition

By Steve Marcuz (@sidskeat) and Shaun Meyer (@deadduck77)

Finally, we came through! The start of the season is always tough for picking spreads but we seem to have righted the ship and have gained a little momentum. We were one ridiculously stupid Kansas City touchdown away from having an 8-2 week, but that’s how the cookie crumbles. Let’s not dwell on that too long, let’s keep this going! Here’s a look at where we are sitting after four weeks:

 

Last Week:

Steve: 3-2

Shaun: 4-1

Season Record

Steve: 7-13

Shaun: 9-9-2

And now, we’re on to week five!

Steve’s Picks

 Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) @ New York Giants

 At this point in the season, it’s hard to believe that both of these teams are winless as both had playoff aspirations heading into 2017. But here we are. I actually think this will be a fun game with a lot of points.  Even though this is a west coast team flying east, I’m not too worried about it. The Chargers are good road bets no matter what going 10-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 15 starts away from home. They also like playing the Giants, sporting a 4-1 ATS and straight up (SU) record in their last five head to head matchups. The Giants are solid at home (5-2 ATS in their last seven) but are surprisingly 0-5 ATS when hosting west coast teams. I think this game comes down to a game winning field goal, which makes the hook important. Give me the Chargers to lose the game, but cover 27-24.

 Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Los Angeles Rams

 Finally after four weeks Shaun and I are going head to head this week. He is a Seahawks fan who admittedly never bets on them because he never gets it right so instantly I’ve got that goin for me. I know the Rams always play the Seahawks tough. It’s evident by Seattle’s 0-5 record ATS against the Rams, but I honestly feel that Jeff Fisher had a lot to do with it. I just barfed a little. On top of that, the Seahawks are usually favored which is why when I saw them as an underdog I thought this was the time to pounce. The market has over-corrected. The Rams don’t really have a home field advantage either, going 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games in LA. I’ll take the Seahawks to win this one straight up 21-14.

Green Bay Packers (+2) @ Dallas Cowboys

 The last time we saw Green Bay was 10 days ago dismantling the Chicago Bears. Aaron Rodgers was as good as ever and he’s the reason I like the Packers in this game. The Cowboys aren’t the team they were last year. Their offense isn’t holding on to the ball as long and their defense is nothing to write home about either. Dak Prescott has kept them in games and I expect that to be the case again. The Packers are a solid bet too, going 9-4 in their last 13 games while Dallas has been the opposite. They are a measly 3-8 ATS in their last 11 and only 2-4 ATS in their last six at home. Packers win this one straight up 31-24.

 San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

 Another pick, another team on the road getting points. Zero favorites for me and zero home teams. This is fine. Although the Niners haven’t won a game in a while, they have been pretty solid at the sportsbook. In their last six games they have a 5-1 ATS record and that includes going 3-1 this season. The Colts on the other hand can’t say the same, going 2-4 ATS in that same time frame. Although the Colts got good news with Andrew Luck back at practice, he won’t be playing this week so it’s Jacoby Brissett under center.  I’m just not sure he can limit the mistakes enough to get this team another win. San Francisco also shows up when pegged as the underdog by three points or less. In that scenario they are 6-2-1 ATS and even won five of those nine games outright. And that’s what I expect them to do here. Niners get their first win of the year 24-17.

 Shaun's Picks

 Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5)

Well Baltimore screwed me again last week accounting for my only loss, falling to Pittsburgh 26-9. Oakland went down to Denver 16-10 and lost more than just a game as they saw Derek Carr go down to a back injury. I was all ready to go back to the well and tell you to take the Ravens and the points against the EJ Manuel led Raiders. Two things swayed me the other way. The first was Manuel wasn't terrible vs a stout Denver defense.  Secondly, Flacco has been terrible,if not flat out awful, against pretty much everyone. That offense has struggled with injuries and has not been able to get anything going the last couple of weeks. Oakland is 10-2 ATS in their last twelve where the spread is three or less in either direction and have beaten the Ravens the last two times they have played. The Ravens hate the late afternoon games going 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight . Raiders win 19-12.

 Green Bay (+2) @ Dallas

Green Bay disposed of the Bears last week in a Thursday night game that marked the end of the (4 game) Glennon era in Chicago. Dallas was stunned by the high flying Rams 35-30. What's wrong in Big D? Well the D for one thing. It doesn't seem to be any good. Also the offensive line that paved the way for Zeke’s stellar season last year doesn't seem to be creating the same lanes for him this year. Green Bay's backfield is a confusing mess right now as conflicting reports swirl through the fantasy community about the extent of the injuries suffered by Montgomery and Williams.  Rodgers and company seem to be truckin’ on just fine. The Pack are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs the Cowboys and are 6-0 ATS following a divisional game over the last two seasons. Give me the Packers 27-23.

 Seattle Seahawks @ LA Rams (-1.5)

Seattle finally put together a decent half of football in the second half vs the Colts last week, pulling away to win 46-18. The Rams pulled the upset over the Cowboys in front of a bunch of empty seats, stadium workers and a couple dozen fans. I was expecting to get the Rams plus some points in this game but was surprised to see that they are favored.  The line has been moving back towards even though. Seattle’s defense isn't what we have been accustomed to seeing the last few years and this definitely ain’t your Jeff Fisher coached Rams. The Rams always seem to split with the Hawks even when they are bad, so now that they are decent I like them to win in a bit of a shootout. The Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in games on grass fields over the last 2 seasons. The Rams are 3-1 ATS vs Seattle in their last four matchups. Rams win 30-24.

 Kansas City (-1) @ Houston

Kansas City had to win late Monday night in dramatic fashion to remain the league's single undefeated team. And it's just week five!! Houston took Tennessee out behind the woodshed for a 57-14 butt whoopin’. The Houston defense hurt Mariota, Watson looked like a stud, and Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman (along with Watson) even piled up some numbers on the ground. This spread is begging you to take the Chiefs which may scream trap game for some, but don't fall for it. Watson and the Texans put those numbers up against an awful Tennessee defense. The Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in road games on grass over the last three seasons. They are also 8-1 ATS on the road after back to back wins over that same period. Also the game is Sunday night, where the Texans are a dismal 3-21-1 ATS in their existence in primetime games. Chiefs stay undefeated 24-20.

 Wildcard Picks

 Steve - Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders UNDER 39

 The biggest reason for me taking this total is obvious, Derek Carr won’t be playing which means EJ Manuel will be making the start for Oakland. The Raiders offense has stalled out recently and the team only averaged 10 points per game in the two games Carr missed last season. The UNDER has hit in four of Baltimore’s last five games. The UNDER has also hit in four of Oakland’s last five games. I’m expecting both teams to try and control the clock here. Ravens win 17-14.

 Shaun- Jacksonville Jaguars(+8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh disposed of the slumping Ravens last week. Jacksonville lost to the pitiful Jets in overtime last week. The Jags have been unstoppable in odd numbered weeks kicking butt in weeks one and three while failing to show up in weeks two and four. Five is an odd numbered week so I say the good Jags show up and give the Steelers a game. The dog has covered in eight of the last nine between the Jaguars and Steelers. Steelers win but Jags cover 23-17.