Walk the Line: Week 17

Boy this NFL season just keeps getting more and more odd. Just when you think you have a good grasp on things, everyone starts breaking their fibulas and things go haywire. Even though things have been very up and down, it’s good to know that Shaun and I are still doing better than some people who actually get paid to do this! So let’s see how last week panned out:

Last Week

Steve: 2-3            Season Record: 40-37-3

Shaun: 2-2-1       Season Record: 43-34-3

Total: 83-71-6 (54%)

So one more final week before the season ends and the playoffs start! We’re going to finish up strong for you!

Steve’s Picks

New England @ Miami (+9.5) Confidence LVL 8
I try not to bet against the Hoodie, and for good reason, the Pats are 12-3 ATS this season. But in a game where Miami will be playing their toughest to try and earn the #5 seed, I think that being a home dog by almost a touchdown is borderline insulting. The Dolphins are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games and on top of that they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. Even more is that the Dolphins are 3-0 SU and ATS against the Patriots the last 3 times these teams played in Miami. With the rumors of Tom Brady sitting in the second half, I think Miami could even win this game. Take all these points and collect this easy money.

Green Bay @ Detroit (+3.5) Confidence LVL 8
Another week, another bet on the Lions from Detroit. Sure, they let me down in a big way last week but that was then and this is now. This game is going to be great with the NFC North on the line and I know that Green Bay is hot right now. Like Hansel hot. But Detroit has been a good bet this season too, especially at home where they are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Ford Field. Like I said, the Pack are rolling right now, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall but are only 2-5 ATS on the road this season. In a division game for all the marbles, I like getting more than a field goal at home. I’ll take it, one last time.

Seattle (-9.5) @ San Francisco Confidence LVL 8
Not all home dogs are created equal. Seattle still has a chance at the #2 seed in the NFC so this game is a must win for them if they want that bye week. Believe it or not, the Seahawks are usually a good bet when favored by 10 or more (which is essentially what this line is with the hook) where they are 6-2 ATS over their last 8 games. We all know how terrible the 49ers are but just in case you’ve been under a rock, they come in to week 17 with a 3-12 ATS mark. I’ll end with the fact that Seattle has covered in 11 straight games against San Francisco holding them to an anemic 11.6 PPG average in that span. Lay all the points and then watch one of the good games on this week.

Arizona (-6.5) @ Los Angeles Confidence LVL 7
This isn’t one of them. Another NFC West big road favorite for me as I think that Arizona will want to finish this game getting some revenge against the Rams. There aren’t very many good stats backing up either of these teams’ play this year so I’m not going to bore you them. I will say that the Cardinals are 4-2 SU and ATS in their last 6 games against LA and the Rams are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 games after winning the previous matchup. Remember I said this was a revenge game since the Rams beat Arizona earlier this year in Phoenix. Fool me once, shame on you…you can’t get fooled again. Wait, what? Just lay the points and continue looking for exciting games.

Shaun’s Picks

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-5) Confidence LVL 7
Philly pulled the upset over the Giants last week by getting a lead early and holding on for the win. Dallas played their starters enough to handily dispose of the Lions, and more importantly, secure my championship in FLAFFL Embryo. One word for you: ZEEEKE!! Unfortunately Cowboy fans, I have two more words for you: BUTT FUMBLE. Reports are it will be mostly Sanchize and DMC moving the ball for Dallas. A meaningless game for Dallas and I think Wentz will try to end the season on a good note. The Eagles are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 at home vs teams with winning records. Eagles 27-17.

New Orleans (+7) @ Atlanta Confidence LVL 6
The Saints looked unstoppable vs a Bucs defense that had looked a lot better lately. Atlanta continued to look the part of the class of the NFC along with the Cowboys. These teams are no strangers to one another. Atlanta is trying to secure the 2 seed and the Saints are just trying to play spoiler. New Orleans is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs division opponents. While the Falcons are 3-7 SU in their last 10 as home favorites. With Brees at QB, the Saints are 7-1 ATS as underdogs of 6.5 or more. Maybe it’s a little wishful thinking on my part (as a Seahawk fan). Saints 31-30.

Oakland @ Denver (-1.5) Confidence LVL 6
Broncos looked like trash last week vs a Kansas City team that looks to win the division if the Raiders lose this week. Oakland was able to outscore the Colts, however now they rely on old Matt McGloin to finish what Carr, Cooper and Crabtree started. Ouch. The only reason I am not so confident on this game is because of how bad the Broncos offense has looked lately. However I look for that Bronco D to take advantage of the inexperienced Raider QB. The Raiders are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs Denver. Denver 23-16.

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Detroit Confidence LVL 8
The Pack is back. Aaron Rodgers lit the once feared Vikings D up to the tune of 5 TDs last week. The Lions could not keep pace with the Cowboys, yet still have a shot at the division if they can beat Green Bay Sunday night. While it has been a good run for Detroit this year, I believe Stafford's finger is hurting him worse than he is letting on and it is visibly causing the offense to struggle. The Packers have won 18 out of their last 22 vs the Lions and the Lions, well, they are the Lions. We all know how this is going to turn out. Packers 27-20.

Wildcards

Steve: New Orleans (+7) @ Atlanta Confidence LVL 6
Hey here’s one of the fun games you can watch! This one should be a dandy as these offenses know how to put up points and there’s plenty on the line…for Atlanta at least. The Falcons can lock up the #2 seed like Shaun pointed out earlier so they want it real bad and the Saints want to beat them even worse. Since 2006, the Saints are 7-2 ATS as an underdog in the Georgia Dome and even better is that they’re 7-3 SU in their last 10 games there. I don’t know if there will be an upset here but I think the Saints can keep it close enough to get you that money!

Shaun: Cleveland @ Pittsburgh UNDER 43.5 Confidence LVL 6
The Browns, red hot and on a 1 game winning streak, get the Steelers who have nothing to play for and have announced they are sitting everyone. So the Browns against a real NFL team's second string may actually be a good game, but games in this series are notoriously low scoring, going under in 9 of the last 11. Not sure what the weather will be but RG3, the Browns and the Steelers number 2's are just screaming punt fest. I'm taking the under.