Walk the Line: Week 13

 Written by Steve Marcuz and Shaun Meyer, who go by @sidskeat and @deadduck on the Fantasy Life App, respectively.

Smell that? No, not Shaun. The money! Smell all that money that you’ve been winning if you’re following along with us? We can’t be stopped right now. After our rough start, we’ve righted the ship on our way to a 48-21-3 combined record over the last 7 weeks. That equals a 69.5% success rate which is just fire in the betting world. Let’s see what happened last week and we are for the year:

Last Week

Steve: 5-0 SeasonRecord: 32-25-3

Shaun: 4-1 Season Record: 35-23-2

We are rolling but if things go wrong this week, it could go really wrong, as we have some duplicate picks and differ on another, so let’s get to it!

Steve’s Picks

Washington (+2.5) @ Arizona Confidence LVL 9

I’m actually kind of surprised that the Cardinals are favorites in this one, even playing at home. Yes, it’s gotten that bad. Carson Palmer doesn’t seem anything like the player we saw last year and although David Johnson continues to impress, the rest of the team has been rather disappointing. Washington on the other hand, although losing to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, have looked great lately. I mean, everyone is losing to Dallas these days. But what’s better is that Washington is 8-2-1 SU and 10-1 in their last 11 games as an underdog. They’re also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Talk about impressive right? The Cardinals on the other hand are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and a dismal 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. I’ll take the points from the team that I expect to win straight up. Captain Kirk FTW.

Denver @ Jacksonville (+4) Confidence LVL 7

Now this line has dropped a little bit (when I made the bet earlier, it was at Jags +5.5) but even at +4 I feel like this is a decent value for a home team. Now I’m a Denver fan, who doesn’t like to bet on his own team but am doing so for the second week in a row. With Trevor Siemian out, the rookie Paxton Lynch will be making his second start of the season on the road. I know the defense is really good, but it’s shown to be vulnerable and as terrible as Blake Bortles is, they move the ball down the field. The Broncos are only 2-7 in their last 9 games when favored by 4.5 or less and only 2-4 ATS as a road favorite. If I wasn’t such a wuss, I’d pick the Jags to win straight up but I don’t have to, so I won’t. The Jags are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home dog and I expect that to go to 5-0 this week. Take the points find a better game to watch.

Detroit (+6) @ New Orleans Confidence LVL 8

Finally, a game that Shaun and I have a disagreement on! I’m sure his bit is chalk full of fluffy Saints facts so I’ll spend my time fluffing the Lions. In their last 7 games as a road dog, the Lions are 5-2 ATS and although the Saints are great at the dome, the Lions over the last 5 weeks have been one of the stronger defensive units in football. In their last 7 games overall the Lions are 6-1 ATS and SU so they’re streaking and with Minnesota losing Thursday night, they have a chance to take a stranglehold on the division. I think this game will be a high scoring one but I don’t think that Stafford and the Lions are run out of town. They’ll keep to well under a touchdown and cover this one with ease. Sorry Shaun.

Panthers (+7) @ Seattle Confidence LVL 7

Not only have both of these teams been hard to watch at times, they’ve been an even more difficult bet. The Seahawks are 5-5-1 ATS this season while the Panthers sport an impressive 3-6-2 ATS record (the result of being the reigning NFC champion, that type of thing comes with expectations). So both of these teams have sucked. What this game comes down to for me is that I can’t trust Seattle’s offense to put up points anymore. The offensive line has become such a problem that everything is being dragged down with it. I know Carolina can put up points, even against this recently middle of the road Seattle defense. The Seahawks are only 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home so although I think they will win this game, I don’t think it will be by more than a touchdown. Take all those points all the way to the cashier’s window.

Shaun’s Picks

Houston @ Green Bay (-7) Confidence LVL 8

The Packers looked to be back on the right track offensively, although Rodgers came out with a gimpy hamstring. The poor Texans took a home loss vs the Chargers, and may be having the most severe case of buyer’s remorse I've ever seen after giving Brock Asswasher*(credit FLAFFL House Podcast) a guaranteed $37M. Ol' Brock Lobster has single handedly killed two preseason top 10 fantasy picks in Hopkins and Miller, pissing off fantasy owners across the country. Green Bay does not have a ground game at all, but they won't need one to dispose of the Texans. The Pack are 26-16 ATS in December home games since 2000. Green Bay 31-16.

Detroit @ New Orleans (-6) Confidence LVL 7

Detroit won their Turkey Day matchup with terrible Sam Bradford and the slumping Vikings. New Orleans got off to a slow start vs the Rams, but then poured points on in bunches enroute to a blowout victory. The Saints have been covering machines at home this year. Drew Brees would probably be the MVP if he played all his games at home. He scores in bunches when in the confines of the Superdome. The Saints rank 4th on the season in spreads covered. I look for this to be a high scoring game but I think New Orleans scores too much for Detroit to stay within a touchdown. New Orleans 38-28.

Washington (+2.5) @ Arizona Confidence LVL 6

Washington put up a good fight but came up a little short in their Thanksgiving Day game versus the streaking Cowboys. Arizona got their doors blown off by the Atlanta Falcons. The Cardinals, a popular preseason Super Bowl pick, have struggled behind Carson Palmer, who seems to have gotten too old to play football over one offseason. The Cardinals are 1-10 ATS vs teams with winning records over the last 2 years, while the fighting Kirk Cousinskins are 9-2 ATS vs teams with losing records over the same period. Washington is also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Washington 24-21.

Carolina (+7) @ Seattle Confidence LVL 8

The Panthers ended up on the wrong end of a tight battle with the surprise "class of the AFC" Oakland Raiders. The Seahawks took a week off in a trip to Tampa Bay, making the Bucs D look like the '85 Bears. They scored a whopping 5 points, getting under their previous low of 6, in that brutal tie vs Arizona earlier this year. I really thought that the Seahawks had turned the corner offensively and I am at a loss for an explanation for their performance last week. They are at home this week, which should help, and are looking for revenge vs a Panther team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year, but a touchdown is too many points to give for a weak O line, a struggling offense, and a defense that has not been the same old Legion of Boom. Seattle 24-23.

Wildcards

Steve: Broncos/Jaguars OVER 40Confidence LVL 7

Now I know I picked the Jags to cover in this one, but believe me, that doesn’t mean I think this game ends 13-10. The Jags can put up points and Lynch had some success in his first start and I don’t think he will be terrible in this one. I feel that just over 20pts for each team is the most likely scenario in this one, as the Denver defense could reach that total in pick 6’s alone. Take the over and watch these teams slug it out.

Shaun: Detroit/New Orleans OVER 54.5Confidence LVL 7

I know this is a big number, but I'm looking for a shootout here. If you take out the 2 games vs Denver and Seattle, two of the NFLs top defenses, the Saints have put up scores of 35,32,38, and 49 while at home in the dome. Detroit is a team with many weapons and the Saints D is as bad as their offense is good. I look for points and fantasy goodness abound. Take the over.