Walk the Line: Week 15

And we’re back! Making up for week 13, we’ve turned in another winning week for you in week 14 and got back on track. With only 3 weeks left in the season, there isn’t much more time to stack your pockets so let’s be sure to finish strong and help offset some of those Christmas expenses. Let’s see where we stand to date:

Last Week:

Steve: 3-2            Season Record: 36-31-3

Shaun: 3-2           Season Record: 39-29-2

Honestly, we could do better, but we’ve already done worse so we are going to take what we can get. Let’s forge onward towards week 15!

Steve’s Picks

Tennessee (+5.5) @ Kansas City Confidence LVL 9
The Chiefs are hot right now, and the last time America saw them they took down the Raiders on Thursday night football while the Titans beat the Broncos in Tennessee. Although the Chiefs look like a force to be reckoned with, they have not been a good bet when playing at home. In their last 9 games in Kansas City, the Chiefs are a lowly 2-7 ATS. The Chiefs also are 0-6 ATS when favored by 5pts or which means that they win games, but they rarely ever blow teams out and I expect more of the same on Sunday. The Titans are only 1-4 ATS on the road in their last 5 games but are actually 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games going into Arrowhead and with how they’ve been playing, I think they’re more than capable of keeping pace with the Chiefs in this one. Take all them points.

Miami @ New York Jets (+2.5) Confidence LVL 7
Putting money on the Jets hasn’t always been the best bet, especially when they’re sporting a 2-3-1 ATS record in their last 6 home games. On top of that, Bryce Petty is now their QB and Matt Forte probably won’t suit up for this game. So why take the Jets? Well for me it has more to do with Miami. Ryan Tannehill won’t be playing this game which, believe it or not, is going to mean their offense will struggle even more than they have since their offensive line has started deteriorating again. The run game has slowed to a crawl and with no pass game either, I think the Dolphins are going to have an issue putting up points. The Jets aren’t going to be bashful, as they have nothing to lose and Petty has shown that he’s not scared to toss the ball around. The Dolphins also suck when in a featured prime time game, going 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 primetime matchups. On top of that, the Dolphins are also a lowly 1-5 ATS against the Jets in their last 6 matchups. Take the points and watch the Jets get the victory here.

Carolina @ Washington OVER 50.5 Confidence LVL 8
You like points!?! I do, and this Monday night matchup is going to feature a lot of them. These are two rough defenses that tend to give up the big play but what’s best is that both offenses also have a tendency to make huge plays as well. The TOTAL has gone OVER in 11 of 13 games this year for Washington which is pretty damn impressive. For Carolina, they usually are able to score on the road as they’ve hit the OVER in 5 of their last 6 road games. When Washington plays at home, they’ve hit the OVER in their last 8 straight. I expect fireworks in this one and wouldn’t be surprised if both teams scored over 30 points, so 50 should be easy. Be sure to tune in for this one.

Detroit (+4) @ New York Giants Confidence LVL 7
If you’ve been reading and keeping up with the article, this isn’t the first time I’ve bet on the Lions and it probably won’t be the last as they continuously are being undervalued when they leave Ford Field. This is evidenced by the fact that the Lions are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a road dog. They have been one of my favorite teams to bet this season so I’m rolling with them again. The Giants just beat the Cowboys, much like they did to open the season, and now I think they’ll lose the following game, much like they did following their season opening win. These Lions are for real so although they might not be able win this game, I think they’ll be able to keep pace with OBJ and the Giants. The visiting team in this matchup is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these clubs, which doesn’t mean much in 2016 but helps my arguments. If they’re giving the Lions points, take them and watch another 4th quarter nail biter.

Shaun’s Picks

Green Bay (-6) @ Chicago Confidence LVL 8
The Bears built a lead on the Lions last week before remembering they were in tank mode and letting Detroit pull off the fourth quarter comeback win. Green Bay throttled the Seahawks thanks greatly in part to Russel Wilson throwing 5 picks in the Lambeau cold. Normally this is one of those games where you say "throw out the records, this will be a good game no matter what". Not this time. The Bears are focused on that high draft pick while the Packers are focused on running down the Lions for the division or at least trying to secure a wild card. The Pack are 4-1 ATS on the road vs teams with losing records while the Bears are 2-10 SU in their last 12 in December. Packers 26-13.

New Orleans @ Arizona (-2.5) Confidence LVL 7
The Saints had their second crappy game in a row against the Bucs in a matchup people had been targeting for the fantasy playoffs all season long. Arizona opened up a can of whoop ass on the Dolphins, who have come crashing back to Earth in their last two after their six game win streak. DJ is having an MVP type season and Palmer looks like he has remembered how to not suck lately. The visiting team is 0-6 SU and ATS in the last six matchups between these two teams. Also the Cardinal D is allowing 14.1 pts per game at home this year, second best in the league. Everyone is touting a bounce back game for Brees. I am not so sure. DJ and the birds roll in this one. Arizona 31-20.

New England (-3.5) @ Denver Confidence LVL 6
Denver fell to Super Mariota and the Titans last week. The Broncos couldn't get anything going offensively until it was too late. The Patriots built a hefty lead on the Ravens Monday night before letting them back into it in a game that was closer than it should have been. The Pats are in cruise control looking to lock up home field in the playoffs. The Broncos were in the thick of the wildcard race, but seem to be faltering down the stretch. Tom Brady has been lights out on the road, with a 15-0 TD to INT ratio. All the stats say to take Denver, but the eye test over the last few weeks say the smart bet is on Tommy and the gang. Patriots 27-20.

Tampa Bay (+7) @ Dallas Confidence LVL 7
Tampa beat the Saints in the fantasy gold matchup that didn't end up being so. A low scoring affair where Jameis failed to score a TD for the first time in his whole career, college or professional. Dallas fell to the mighty Giants for the second time this year. Zeke said he isn’t afraid of the rookie wall, but it looks like Dak may have ran smack into it, initiating talk that they should possibly move back to the oft-injured Tony Romo. Since 2009, road teams in games involving the Bucs are 74-43 ATS, while since 2010, the underdog is 69-39 ATS in games involving the Cowboys. I say the Cowboys win in a close one. Dallas 31-26.

Wildcards

Steve: New England @ Denver UNDER 44 Confidence LVL 7
As a Broncos fan, I’m nervous for this game, but that is basically my constant state so it’s nothing new. Much like how I felt about the Ravens and Patriots UNDER, I feel the same about this one. It’s gonna be a playoff atmosphere and this Denver defense is one of few that can give Tom Brady a bad time. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver’s last 8 games going against teams with a winning record. Both of these teams are allowing fewer than 19pts a game, which according to my math, is almost a TD less than what the TOTAL is set at now. These 2 teams have combined to hit the UNDER in 14 of their last 20 games (7 of 10 each) so I think that ball control will be the name of the game. Take the UNDER but still watch this early playoff game.

Shaun: Oakland @ San Diego OVER 49.5 Confidence LVL 8
Whether it was the finger, or the Kansas City cold, Carr and the Raiders had a tough go of things last Thursday night. San Diego succumbed to the Panthers mostly because of Rivers’ three picks. I think Carr has had time to nurse his pinky and it should be warmer in sunny San Diego. Plus the Raiders D isn't scaring anyone. Look for points and plenty of them and bet the over in a game where you don't have to worry about the weather.