Walk the Line: Week 14

Well…that’s not how that’s supposed to happen. Not at all. After boasting about how amazing Shaun and I have been over the past month and change, we really bit it hard in week 13 and came crashing back down to Earth. Luckily with our streak we had bought ourselves a little leeway, but still, going 2-8 combined if bruuuutal. We apologize, and promise to right this wrong. Let’s see the damage:

Last Week

Steve: 1-4            Season Record: 33-29-3

Shaun: 1-4           Season Record: 36-27-2

Ouch. But we are still both hovering over .500 and have a few weeks left to finish strong. Let’s get to it!

Steve’s Picks

Ravens/Patriots UNDER 45.5 Confidence LVL 9
Can you tell I’m hesitant to play spreads? Just kidding, but when I saw this number I thought it was way too high. These teams don’t like each other much as they always seem to meet in the playoffs and have provided a lot of good moments through the years. I expect Monday night to be no different. This one almost has the feeling of a division rivalry game which are always played tough and I can see this one ending much like this past week’s Thursday night game with Oakland and Kansas City. The Ravens offense is not their calling card and the loss of Gronk turns the Patriots into a completely different team where the offense still moves but doesn’t hum like normal. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games. For the Patriots, the UNDER has hit in 7 of their last 10 games. I see the winning team having around 20-21pts here making this an easy cover.

Houston (+6.5) @ Indianapolis Confidence LVL 7
Remember, lines are created based off of public perception. When we last saw the Colts it was on Monday night and they were beating the snot out of the Jets. Everyone saw how easily the Colts put up points and that will be fresh in bettor’s minds when they go to the ticket window. The Texans have an actual defense, with an actual pass rush, and Andrew Luck isn’t gonna be able to throw to a wide open Dwayne Allen 3 times for an easy 21 points. The Texans are a lowly 1-5 ATS in their last 6 on the road, so why pick them? The biggest concern here of course is that we must rely on Brock Asswasher to try and keep pace with Luck. A pretty tough task but I think he’s gonna get it done. I don’t think the Texans will win, but in these division games, anything can happen, and control for 1st place is on the line here. I expect a hard fought close game here and think Houston has what it take to at the very least keep it close. Take the point and wash that ass! Wait…

Atlanta (-6.5) @ Los Angeles Confidence LVL 7
I feel pretty good about this one with or without Julio Jones playing, but if he’s out, you might be able to get some better value than this spread, so keep an eye out. Atlanta is also in a division fight with Tampa Bay who is playing another potential division threat in New Orleans, so Atlanta will be motivated to win this game, and I’m betting a little pissed off about how week 13 ended for them. The Falcons surprisingly are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 west coast games, and that includes a game earlier this season against the Raiders in which they won. On top of that, Atlanta has been a good road team overall, going 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU in their last 7 away from the ATL. I don’t need to tell you how inept the Rams are, but I will anyway, I’m defensive after last week. The Rams are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lay the points and watch Atlanta roll the Rams.

Denver (+1) @ Tennessee Confidence LVL 7
Here I am, 3rd week in a row betting on Denver, basically just throwing my own rule out the window, and I’ve gone 1-1 on them so far. This game is a weird one for me. Denver isn’t doing what most expected from them and Tennessee has been one of the bigger surprises of the year. Remember what I said about public perception? I think that has a lot to do with this line. The Titans and Mariota haven’t faced a defense like Denver’s in quite a few weeks and I think it’s going to give them fits. Trevor Siemian is going to be back which is a big lift for Denver’s offense which is facing a really bad Titans defense. The Broncos are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games over while going 4-2 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Titans on the other hand are only 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. This game was Denver -1 on Thursday and has moved 2pts in favor of the Titans. Take the point and watch Denver run away with this one.

Shaun’s Picks

Denver (+1) @ Tennessee Confidence LVL 8
Tennessee is fresh off a bye and in an ugly ménage a' trois with Houston and Indy atop the pitiful AFC South. Denver beat the awful Bortles and the Jags and did so even with the rookie Paxton Lynch at QB. The Broncos look to sweep the aforementioned AFC South with a victory on Sunday. They are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs Titans, and the Titans are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games following a win. Kubiak coached teams are 12-3 ATS in the second of back to back road games. Siemian should be back this week. I look for Denver's D to stifle Super Mariota and the Broncos should score enough to win by at least a field goal.  Denver 24-20.

Seattle @ Green Bay (+3) Confidence LVL 7
Green Bay took care of Asswasher and the Texans in the snow last week up at Lambeau. The Seahawks rolled the Panthers after Riverboat Ron fed Derek Anderson to the wolves in an attempt to punish Cam for his refusal to wear a tie. One play, one pick, and Carolina never recovered. If there is one place you don't want to fall behind early on the road it is Seattle. The Hawks however lost Earl Thomas for the rest of the season to a broken leg and while it didn't hurt them last week, it definitely will moving forward. The Packers are 12-2 ATS in December games at home with Aaron Rodgers at QB. The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs Packers. The Seahawk D will struggle to stop Rodgers and the Pack in the cold with Thomas missing from the middle of the D. Packers 26-23.

Houston @ Indianapolis (-6.5) Confidence LVL 9
Houston struggled to move the ball in the snow up in Green Bay last week. Indianapolis kicked the ass of the New York Jets. Don’t believe me? Just look up and watch Todd Bowles’ press conference where he must have used the phrase "ass kicked" 20 times. Houston and Indy are tied with the Titans atop the steaming pile of a division, yet I feel the Colts are far better a team than the other two. The Colts are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 as home favorites, and Brock, well Brock is just awful. Not sure if even the Colts D can make him look like a real NFL QB. Andrew Luck is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-5 ATS vs division opponents. I look for Indy to take control of this awful division. Colts 27-17.

Washington (-2) @ Philadelphia Confidence LVL 6
Washington disappointed me last week vs the Arizona Cardinals. Philadelphia got blitzed by the AJ Green-less Bengals and have disappointed since mid-October after a hot start. The team from Washington has covered the spread in their last 5 vs the Eagles, and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 division games.  Philadelphia hasn't been able to move the ball offensively and defensively have been giving up points in bunches after being one of the league’s best units early on in the season. Look for Captain Kirk and the Skins to stay in the wildcard hunt for the NFC, and look for the Eagles to continue to slump. Washington 30-17.

Wildcards

Steve: Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Cleveland Confidence LVL 8
I’m not even sure they are going to air this game in Cleveland, and I think Bengals fans are going to pass on watching feeling confident their team will have an easy win here even without AJ Green for another week or two. Robert Griffin III is making his comeback since week 1 which should lead to at least one pick 6 for Cincy helping them on their way to a large cover. I think they get a lead early and Cleveland helps them out in the end with more. The Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with losing records and the Browns are definitely that while being 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lay the points and be happy it’s less than 2 TDs which is what they should win by.

Shaun: Houston @ Indianapolis (under 47) Confidence LVL 7
I have already spoke to how I feel this game will go down, but I will add only 3 more things. 1) The Texans have gone under in nine of their last twelve games in December. 2) The last seven times Houston has played in Indy the total has gone under. 3) Brock Osweiler is an awful, awful, quarterback. Take the Colts and the under baby!!