Walking The Line: Week 9

Now we are rolling! Halfway through the season and we are finally rounding out into form. Seems like the ship has been righted and we are going to barrel on through to the end of the year. Why stop now, seems like we’ve got a stranglehold on teams and lines at this point so while I’m doing all this puffing, we’ll most likely have a down week. No! We won’t let that happen. Let’s take a look at where we stand:

Last Week

Steve: 3-2            Season Record: 21-18-1

Shaun: 4-1          Season Record: 20-18-2

So we are both winners so far this season, although barely. If you’ve followed along the last 3 weeks you’ve seen that we’ve really come a long way and the rest of the season will be full of cast. Let’s get started for in week 9!

Steve’s Picks

Jacksonville @ Kansas City (-7.5) Confidence LVL 7
If you listen to the FLAFFL House podcast (which if you don’t, you now have homework) you know that I’m not a fan of Blake Bortles but I am counting on him in this one. How you ask? Well I’m going to be relying on him to throw at least one pick-6 in this one on a way to covering for the Chiefs. In this matchup, the favored team is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups. The Jaguars are just an atrocious road team, going only 2-18 SU in their last 20 on the road, but Gus Bradley is a good coach I swear (insert eye roll). Now KC on the flipside is only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games but even with no Alex Smith and no Spencer Ware, I think the KC defense keeps Jacksonville off the board for a big cover here. Take the Chiefs and lay the points.

New York Jets (+3.5) @ Miami Confidence LVL 8
I think this game has 2 teams where public has a different view than people who are actually watching the games. It’s hard to forget Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing 6 INTs in one game, that type of performance sticks in your mind. But after being benched and then forced into starting again, Fitzy hasn’t been that same terrible QB (he hasn’t been that good either don’t get me wrong). Miami is coming off of their bye and the last we saw them Jay Ajayi had just run for his second consecutive 200 yard game. That won’t happen here and the Dolphins offense outside of the run is pretty scary. The Jets still sport a 9-3 SU record against teams with losing records and Miami is only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games. I think the Dolphins could pull this one out, but I see this being a tough divisional game decided by no more than a FG late. Take the points and fly high with the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (+2) Confidence LVL 7
This is one of those games where you see the line and say “There’s no way that the Steelers are only favored by 2 in Baltimore” and run to the ticket window. I might have followed you if I was still 22 and hadn’t learned what I have over the years which is to say if a line looks too good to be true, it usually is. Two points doesn’t seem like nearly enough so I’ll be taking the home dog here with the Ravens and the points. This is one of the toughest divisional matchups in football and although the Ravens have taken a step back, both teams get up for this one. The Steelers are actually 0-3 SU in their last 3 meetings with the Ravens and on top of that, are only 1-3-1 ATS against Baltimore in their last 5 matchups. To get the cover here, I’m basically picking the Ravens to upset the Steelers which could be tough, but I’m taking the points and trusting in the home dog!

Carolina/Los Angeles UNDER 44.5 Confidence LVL 7
This one could have gone a few different ways as the Rams are another home dog that I’ve had my eye on this week, unfortunately 3 points is a little too close for comfort so I decided to go this route because, well, the Rams offense sucks and the Panthers defense may have figured some things out on their bye week. The total in this game has hit the UNDER in 4 of the previous 5 matchups between these teams which I’ll admit, doesn’t happen all the time. But I’m looking at this more from LA’s side of things. The total has gone UNDER in 14 of LA’s last 19 games and on top of that, the UNDER has hit in 7 of the Rams’ last 10 home games. Remember earlier this year when the Seahawks went into LA and that game totaled 19! I’m not saying that happens, but we have a lot of wiggle room there. Take the under and do yourself a favor, only watch the highlights of this one.

Shaun’s Picks

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-2.5) Confidence LVL 8
The Giants are coming off the bye and the Eagles are coming off an overtime loss to the juggernaut Cowboys led by the rookie duo of Dak and Zeke. Philly's offense looked alive again last week after two weeks of relying on the D and special teams to score their points. The problem is that their kick return specialist was just released due to an arrest for weed, gun possession, and doing over 100 mph on the highway. If you have weed and guns why the hell are you doing 100? Even though all my stats say take the Eagles, I'm riding OBJ and hoping Eli keeps dumb ass mistakes to a minimum. Giants 24-16.

New Orleans (-3.5) @ San Francisco Confidence LVL 7
The 49ers had their bye last week and the Saints beat the Seahawks in the comfy confines of the dome last Sunday. While the Saints aren't as good on the road as they are at home, they aren't lose-to-San Francisco bad. San Fran is 1-6 ATS this year and haven't covered a spread since week 1. Kaep has been God awful proving that as bad as things were with Yo Gabba Gabbert, things could be worse. While the Saints defense is bad, Kaep would probably only complete 60% of passes vs no defense at all. San Fran's D is equally terrible and New Orleans will score too much for the hapless Niners to keep up. Saints 34-24.

Denver (+1) @ Oakland Confidence LVL 7
Denver got their coach back, Siemian looked healthy, and they disposed of the Chargers at Mile High. Oakland did what they do by winning on the road against the Bucs. This is possibly a matchup for the division. Carr has been lighting it up and looks to be taking a step towards elite QB status. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they are at home. Denver is 7-0 ATS as a dog the last 2 seasons, while Oakland is just 2-9 ATS at home over the same period. Look for Von Miller and Denver's D to bring Carr and the passing attack back down to Earth. Broncos 23-20.

Buffalo (+7) @ Seattle Confidence LVL 6
The Bills took their lumps in the revenge game vs the Pats last week (told ya). The Seahawks took a loss vs the Saints in the dome (told ya again). Poor Russ. He is hurt so bad. The Saints D did make him look a little better though. The Bills D is better than the Saints D though. They are going to bring pressure knowing Russ can’t escape it and the line can’t protect him. Bills are 6-0 ATS after consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Seahawks D will have to hold Tyrod down and possibly even score some points to come away with a win this week. Since 2013, Rex led teams are 5-0-1 in primetime games. Home field and the Defense do it for the Hawks. Seattle 17-13.

Wildcards

Steve: Dallas @ Cleveland (+7.5) Confidence LVL 7
I’m picking this one here because the article can always use another home dog and why not the lovable losers from Cleveland? I can’t find many stats to back this one up so I’ll go this route. In college ball, it’s easy to look past an apparent easy matchup and this could be that game. Remember that there are 2 rookies running this team who only know the Browns as a punching bag. I think Dallas gets slapped around early in this one and Cleveland is able to hold on to cover. Super Dak might make another heroic comeback, but it won’t be by more than a touchdown. GO BROWNS!

Shaun: New Orleans/San Francisco OVER 52.5 Confidence LVL 5
I'm being honest here, I'm not confident on this one. Just know that these are two crappy defenses. And after i predicted the scores i checked the totals and picked this one. Double down take the Saints and the over and reap the benefits if no one can stop anyone.