Walking the Line: Week 12

I wish I could say this is getting old, but winning never gets old and that’s what we keep doing here. Well Shaun does at least, turning in another great week while I continue to push and screw myself. Stupid LaGarrette Blount can’t get a 1 yard TD with 2 minutes left c’mon?! Anyway, I digress, the point is that we keep giving winners and this is where we stand:

Last Week:

Steve: 2-2-1        Season Record: 27-25-3

Shaun: 4-1           Season Record 31-22-2

Shaun keeps it rolling and I’m just keeping pace. It’s now the holiday season, the season of giving, so here are some more winners for week 12.

Steve’s Picks

Carolina (+3.5) @ Oakland Confidence LVL 8

I can tell you hate this already. I understand, even as a Broncos fan, I see the allure that the Raiders have this season and they are a good bet week in and week out. Carolina has been vastly disappointing coming off of their Super Bowl appearance last year but has really started to look like a better team as of late, save for the that blown lead and loss to Kansas City. The Raiders over the last few years are a combined 7-23 in their last 30 games as a 4pt favorite or less. On the flip side, the Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog of 4pts our more. I think this will be one of the best, high scoring games of the weekend but I don’t think Cam lets it get out of hand. He’s a former MVP, don’t forget that. I like the Panthers to not only cover, but to win this one straight up, but take those points.

Jacksonville (+7.5) @ Buffalo Confidence LVL 7

This is a weird week for bets. A lot of home dogs to choose from but here I am picking the Jaguars to not get their ass kicked in Buffalo. I’m only taking this bet because of the .5 hook making this a pretty darn good value, as you all know I have no faith in Blake Bortles and think he is a big reason this team continues to fizzle. Although, the Jags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games following a loss, so they do typically put up a fight in most games and rarely fail to cover back to back. The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and got a big win on the road last week against Cincinnati. But the Bills are 6-20-2 ATS coming off of a win as an underdog which usually means they follow a big win with a letdown. I think they can pull off another victory, but like the Jags to be in it late. Take the points yet again.

Kansas City (+3.5) @ Denver Confidence LVL 7

I’m breaking one of my own rules here and placing a bet with Denver involved which typically never goes well for me, but the numbers were too overwhelming for me to ignore. These teams very similar to me. Strong on defense but definitely something left to be desired on the offensive side of the ball. I said there were numbers, and here they are. The Chiefs are 7-0 SU in their last 7 AFC West games. On top of that, they are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games overall. And then the icing on the cake is that they are 8-3 ATS and SU in their last 11 road games. Their team travels well and I think this will be a close one throughout. I can see Denver winning on a FG late which makes that extra half point so tasty. I’ll lay the points again…sensing a theme again?

Green Bay (+4) @ Philadelphia Confidence LVL 7

A few weeks ago, I feel like the Packers almost would have been a favorite in this game but things have definitely gone off the rails for them over the past month. On top of that, Philly is no easy place to play, as we near December how can we not talk about the fans that booed Santa. It’s that tough. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS and SU in their last 5 home games while the Packers are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. But the Packers are also 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS after failing to cover in their 2 most recent road games. What that tells me is that they usually right the ship right when you think things couldn’t get any worse. I think all playoff hopes for the Pack are gone this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they won this game in Philly. For the fourth time in this article, take the points!

Shaun’s Picks

Tennessee (-5.5) @ Chicago Confidence LVL 9

The Bears lost a close one in the wind bowl vs the Giants last week. The Titans got behind in a hurry vs the Colts and rallied but ran out of time. Before last week the Titans had been on a roll as of late. The Bears are just bad, and as bad as they are with ol' Smokin Jay, now it looks like they are rolling into Sunday's matchup with Tennessee with Matt "I'm turrible" Barkley at QB. I didn’t think I could think less of Chicago, but I was wrong. All the stats say bet against the Titans, but past performance stats have no bearing here as they do not account for Barkley's lack of talent. I say Bears struggle to move the ball, and the Titans don't. Tennessee 27-16.

New York Giants (-7) @ Cleveland Confidence LVL 7

The red hot G-Men beat the listless Smoking Jay Cutlers last week in a windy showdown. The Browns, well what can I say about the Browns? They did what they do, losing and failing to cover another spread vs the Steelers. I read somewhere that there is actually a petition to change the Cleveland mascot to the poop emoji. Ok, I made that up, but totally believable right? The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. The Giants however are 8-2 ATS following consecutive home games. Look for Eli, OBJ, and the crew to have their way, and look for the Browns to keep being the Browns. Giants 24-13.

LA Rams @ New Orleans (-7) Confidence LVL 8

New Orleans lost a tough road game vs the Panthers last week. They fell behind big early and their comeback fell just short. The Rams held a pitiful 10-0 lead over the Dolphins for most of their game Sunday before remembering they were the Rams and giving up two quick scores in the 4th quarter to walk away with the loss. Goff was unimpressive in his first start, with the only positive thing you can say about him is that he is not Case Keenum. Everyone is aware of Drew Brees' increase in productivity at home in the dome, or you should be if you've read any of these articles thus far this year. The Saints are 4-0 ATS this year following a loss, and poor Goff and the Rams will not be able to keep pace. Saints 30-20.

San Francisco (+7.5) @ Miami Confidence LVL 6

The 49ers didn’t take the beat down everyone expected them to last week, keeping it close enough for the push thanks to Blount and the Pats basically sitting on the ball at the 1 as time ran out. The Dolphins continued their winning ways by going into Los Angeles and pulling off the win after trailing most of the game. Now I'm not saying the Niners aren't garbage, they are, but they have looked a little better over the last couple weeks. The Niners have covered in their last 3 trips to Miami, and the Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home vs teams with losing records. I don't expect Miami to lose this game, but outside of Cleveland they shouldn't be favored by more than a touchdown vs anyone.  I like the Niners to keep it close. Dolphins 28-23.

 

Wildcards

Steve: LA Rams @ New Orleans (-7) Confidence LVL 7

I know Shaun picked this one and I promise, I’m not just piggy backing off of him, although it’s not a bad idea. This is just a case of a good team at home against a not very good team. How’s that for analysis? The Rams can’t play offense at all and I think the dome will prove too much for Jared Goff on Sunday. I think the Saints will win this one by 14 at least as they’re 5-1-1 in their last 7 games ATS while the Rams are only 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 SU. The only reason for pause is that the Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with losing records which means when they should beat teams up, they aren’t. But I think this team is different. Hey, lay the points for once why don’t you.

Shaun: Seattle @ Tampa Bay OVER 45 Confidence LVL 7

You won’t see me take an over in too many Seahawk games. But their offense is humming along and the Bucs aren't too shabby themselves. Seattle beat and covered vs Philly last week, and the Bucs went into Arrowhead and won in November which doesn't happen for road teams very often. Seahawks are going to miss Earl Thomas a couple weeks and I like Tampa to keep up with