Walking The Line: Week 11

Well now, it would appear that we are on a bit of a roll here and it just keeps on rolling! For one of us at least. For the other, how the hell do you get a push on an OVER/UNDER? Bad luck, that’s how. But regardless, we have turned in yet another winning and week and as the bye weeks start to dry up, the value seems to be everywhere so let’s take a look at where we stand:

Last Week:

Steve: 2-2-1        Season Record: 25-23-2

Shaun: 3-2           Season Record: 27-21-2

Stupid pushes. Better than a loss I suppose. So here we go into week 11 and another week of growing the bank roll.

Steve’s Picks

Houston (+6) @ Oakland Confidence LVL 7
The biggest issue I have with this game is that I have to rely on Brock Osweiler to try and keep pace with Derek Carr and the high flying Oakland offense. But I feel this line is being used as a real home game, which is automatically worth 3 points. This game will be played in Mexico City, which is much closer to Houston than it is to Oakland so I don’t know if there’s any type of home field advantage here. The Texans are 10-3 in their last 13 games following a win as an underdog so their momentum carries. The Houston Texans secondary is also very stout so I’m not sure that the Raiders will be able to fly like they normally do. The Raiders are 4-14 SU following conference wins, which last we saw them they were disposing of my Denver Broncos. I don’t think Houston wins this game, but I think they keep it within a TD and it’s a competitive game south of the border. Take the points.

New England (-13) @ San Francisco Confidence LVL 8
Every rule in sports betting says to not do what I’m doing here. It says to take the almost 2 touchdowns being given and hope that there isn’t a blowout. I don’t think these rules apply to The Hoodie and Tom Brady’s Patriots and after losing last week on Sunday night, they are going to go in to SF and take it out on them. I can give you a bunch of ATS stats for this game but I’ll save you all the jibber jabber and just say the Pats have covered a lot and the 49ers have not. The stat that did stick out the most to me and I feel is most important is that as a road favorite, the Pats are 3-0 SU and ATS winning by an average of 15.6 points. As Sal would say “yeah but that’s just an average” I will say that these 49ers are far below average, so after Sunday, I expect this number to be higher. Lay the points and watch the Patriots hit the OVER of 51 by themselves.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Kansas City Confidence LVL 9
Tampa is becoming one of my favorite teams to watch on offense each week. It hasn’t always been pretty, but they are able to put up points each and every week which is why I like them here. I know that Tampa’s offense might be slowed a bit by the charging KC defense, but I don’t think the Chiefs’ offense is strong enough to pull away from the Bucs. What’s also odd about this Tampa team is that they’ve been a good road team, going 3-1 SU and ATS in their 4 road games this year. On the flipside, the Chiefs have been a bad bet at home. Kansas City is only 1-6 ATS in their 7 home games, but are currently on a 5 game winning streak there. What does that mean? That they are winning close games at home. Being as Tampa is getting more than a touchdown here, this would be my pick of the week. Take all those points and watch the Chiefs win another close one.

Pittsburgh (-9) @ Cleveland Confidence LVL 8
Ok, one big road favorite is bad enough. But two? Have I learned nothing from the opening of this season? Well I have, and that’s why I’m handing this one out. In case you haven’t noticed, the Browns are really bad. Of course that could mean they’re “due” but the Steelers are on a 4 game skid themselves. After losing a close one against Dallas last week, I think Pittsburgh acts very much like New England and uses their opponent this week as a punching bag. The Browns are 1-10 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 HOME games. On top of that, the Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against Cleveland. Unfortunately I don’t think this is the week for the Browns to get their first win, but a late backdoor cover is entirely possible. I’ll bet against it though and lay all those points.

Shaun’s Picks

Philadelphia @ Seattle (-6.5) Confidence LVL 7
The Eagles pulled off the upset over the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday. Not to be outdone, the Seahawks went into Foxboro and beat the unstoppable New England Patriots. It fully looks like Seattle has turned things around and are ready to make their end of the year push for home field advantage. Russ is looking healthier by the week and Rawls expects to be back this week. Now I never bet on my own favorite team, but I'm telling you to put your money down on the Hawks at home. Seattle is 17-3 ATS in weeks 11-17 over the last three seasons. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS on the road this year. Wentz hasn't heard noise like he will hear Sunday, nor has he faced a defense the caliber of the one he will see. Hawks roll in November. Seattle 34-17.

Miami (-2.5) @ LA Rams Confidence LVL 8
Miami went into the Chargers’ stadium and came away with the win last week. That makes their last loss coming in week 5. The Rams were victorious over the Jets in a 9-6 barnburner. Apparently someone finally held a gun to Fisher's head and forced him to announce that the Case Keenum era is over and it’s time to see what number one overall pick Goff can do. My guess is not much. The Rams are averaging a league worst 9.7 points over their last three games, and 12.7 points per game at home this season. The Dolphins are on a 4 game winning streak and have beaten the Rams 9 out of the last 10 times they've played. Sounds crazy to say out loud, but I'm riding that Miami Dolphin hot streak. Miami 24-20.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Kansas City Confidence LVL 5
Kansas City came from behind to beat a Carolina team that has had trouble finishing games. Tampa Bay got a rare win at home, shellacking the Chicago Smokin’ Jay Cutlers 36-10. Mike Evans has been a beast this year and TE Cameron Brate has burst onto the scene as an every week option at the position. The Bucs are weak against the pass, but I'm not sure Alex Smith has the arm to take advantage of it. The Bucs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs Chiefs. Not to mention the Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. I believe the Spencer Ware run game and the dink and dunk pass game are enough to win the game, but I look for Tampa to hang tough and cover the spread in a close one. Chiefs 23-20.

Baltimore @ Dallas (-7) Confidence LVL 6
Dallas beat the Steelers on the road in a Game of the Year candidate. Baltimore had a bye week. No wait, they played the Browns. Oh well, same thing. I don't usually like taking 7 point spreads for fear of the dreaded push but Dallas may be the actual Super Bowl favorite behind the all-star rookie duo of Dak and Zeke. They have covered the spread eight weeks in a row now and even though last week was a close game, I feel like they control the clock with the best line in the game, and hit enough big plays to win by more than the touchdown they are favored by. The Ravens are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after consecutive wins. Cowboys 31-20.

Wildcards

Steve: Buffalo @ Cincinnati (-2.5) Confidence LVL 6
I can totally understand if you don’t ever want to put money on the Bengals ever again. They’re about as frustrating as any team in the league. But what I’ve seen from watching them through the last few years is that when Bad Andy shows up, the following week he usually redeems himself. The Bills are coming off of consecutive losses, but are 8-1 SU in that scenario, meaning 3 game losing streaks don’t happen often. But this will be a road game for them where they’ve struggled, going 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9. I’ll take the home team laying less than a FG to take the win in this one and send Sexy Rexy on his way to the hot seat yet again.

Shaun: Jacksonville @ Detroit OVER 47.5 Confidence LVL 8
Crappy defenses mean points in bunches and here we have 2 crappy defenses. The over has hit in 8 of Detroit's last 11 home games. You are going to have to sweat it out as the Jags don't typically score their points until garbage time. But trust that terrible Bortles will put up some meaningless points once the loss is secured. Take the over.