Walking The Line: Week 10

Another week, and another payout if you were following along and followed us to the ticket window. Shaun was the big winner this week, pulling this FLAFFL team to over .500 but for the season, we’re both still in the green. After nine whole torturous weeks, let’s see where we stand:

Last Week

Steve: 2-3            Season Record: 23-21-1

Shaun: 4-1           Season Record: 24-19-2

Still above water and ready to finish the season strong. Week 10 starts now! (OK it started Thursday but whatever, I got stuff to do too alright)

Steve’s Picks

Chicago @ Tampa Bay (+2) Confidence LVL 7
This game is interesting to me because everyone seems to talk about how sneaky this Bears defense is. I’m not buying it so much myself, as they seem to definitely have something going at home, but on the road they’ve given up 23 points or more in the 4 contests. This Bucs team can put up points, and I expect them too (but we’ll get to that later). Now for the stats. The Bears are 0-4 SU in their last 4 games following a win, so they have trouble stringing them together. The Bears are also only 2-7 ATS and SU in their last 9 games overall. Not to pile on here, but they’re also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, again pointing to the fact that their defense doesn’t take make the trip away from Chicago. Now the Bucs are also 0-5 in their last 5 home games, but they have been favorites in most of them. I’ll take the home dog in this one.

Chicago/Tampa Bay OVER 46 Confidence LVL 9
Right off the bat I’ll say that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Bears’ last 5 games but please…nope, I won’t say it. Please hear me out. I just talked about how much better Chicago’s defense is at home, and 3 of their last 5 were in Soldier Field. The road game which failed to reach the total was in Green Bay when Brian Hoyer left early with a broken arm, leaving the backup to try and keep up with Aaron Rodgers, which he did not. In Tampa, the OVER has hit in 8 of their last 11 home games and I expect fireworks in this game. And in one of the most unnecessary stats of the article, the total has gone OVER in 26 of the Bears’ last 35 games following a win. That spans many different QBs, coaching staffs, GMs so that there is a Chicago staple. This one is almost a lock for me I’m going waaaaay over.

Houston (+1.5) @ Jacksonville Confidence LVL 8
All I should really have to say here is Blake Bortles but I understand sometimes even he lucks into a cover, so I guess I’ll try and do some actual analysis. This is a divisional game so it’s no wonder the spread is close here which automatically doesn’t speak well for the Jags as they haven’t blown anyone out all season. Now 2 points is by no means a blowout, but they Jags have barely lead this season so I’m frankly surprised they’re even a favorite, even at home. Actually, the visiting team in this matchup is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. On top of that, the Texans are 9-2 SU in their last 11 against the Jags. Now this will be the first time that Brock Osweiler will be under center for the Texans so that might not mean much. Now the Jags are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games, which would be a bit of deterrent, but at the same time are only 2-9 in that same span, meaning that they’re typically home dogs and will cover but not always win. I don’t like having to rely on them to win let alone by more than a point. I’ll take the extra points from the team I expect to win straight up. Take them Texans.

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Washington Confidence LVL 6
I’m really not a huge fan of this game, but I really wasn’t fan of many of the remaining games on the board so I went here in what I feel is going to be against the grain. Everyone is off the Vikings right now, and rightly so. Their offense is bad, like when a new actor replaces an old actor as the same character on a TV show bad. It’s hard to watch and ruins the defense because they’re unable to sustain any type of momentum. All that said, I think they turn it around in Washington this week, or at least cover. The Vikings are 8-2 ATS following consecutive ATS losses so when they start a skid, it usually comes to a halt rather quickly. The Vikings are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 away games so playing on the road ain’t no thang to them. Washington has been playing well, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 and are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games at home. But during their recent 4-1-1 run, they haven’t played a defense like Minnesota’s. I’ll take the points again and hope the team in purple can keep pace.

Shaun’s Picks

Denver @ New Orleans (-3) confidence 7
New Orleans walloped the 49ers last week in a game where they were a point and a half away from the 52.5 over at halftime. Denver's vaunted defense made David Carr look like Drew Brees, and now they get Drew Brees. Mr. Brees has thrown for 300 yards in 9 of his last 12 home games, and 3 or more TDs in 8 of his last 9 games in the dome. He is also 26-10 ATS in home games against teams with winning records. Yes I know the Saints D is trash, making Colin Kaepernick look like a legit NFL QB, so I expect they will do the same with Siemian. But Brees at home is typically money in the bank. Saints 30-20.

Dallas (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh Confidence LVL 6
Big Ben looked atrocious in his first game back from injury vs the division leading Ravens. (At least for 3 and a half quarters). Dallas continued their winning ways against the hapless Browns thanks to the dynamic rookie duo of Dak and Zeke. The Cowboys have covered the spread in their last 7 games. To say they are on a roll would be putting it lightly. They look to be the class of the NFC. Ben doesn't look to be 100% yet and the Cowboys are averaging an NFL best 163 rushing yards on the road this year. The Steelers have a ton of talent and are at home, but I expect Dallas to keep the streak alive, albeit in a close one, in a game of the week candidate. Dallas 34-27.

Atlanta (-2) @ Philadelphia Confidence LVL 8
Atlanta dominated Tampa Bay in their week 9 matchup in what seemed like the only enjoyable Thursday night game ever. Philadelphia lost to the Giants even though Eli tried to serve them up a win on a silver platter. The Falcons look to be the best team in the NFC not named Dallas. Philly has struggled since the bye. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and 9-1 SU in their last 10 games vs NFC East teams. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS and SU in their last 5 game vs NFC teams. I say Wentzonator continues to struggle, and Matty Ice continues his MVP worthy season in what I expect to be another high scoring game. Atlanta 31- 24.

Chicago @ Tampa Bay (+2) Confidence LVL 8
The Bears beat the slumping Vikings last week. Tampa couldn't score enough to keep up with the Falcons last Thursday. All the stats I can find say both these teams should lose. For instance, the Bucs are 0-6 ATS and SU in their last six home games, but the bears are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. The Bucs haven't covered a spread in their last 5 following a home loss, but the Bears have lost their last four games following a win. Just a big ol' suck-fest. Evans cleared his concussion protocol and Crab-leg Winston's leg injury doesn't seem to be serious. When in doubt, bet against Smokin’ Jay Cutler. Tampa Bay 24-20.

Wildcards

Steve: Los Angeles/New York Jets OVER 40 Confidence LVL 7
Nothing about this game screams OVER which is one of the reasons I like it so much. I mean, the total has gone OVER in the Rams’ last 4 games against the Jets, so there is that. I know, I know, these teams rarely play so that doesn’t matter as much but the fact that the Jets games have gone OVER in 7 of the last 10 following a Jets loss does entice me enough to take the OVER. The Jets defense is bad enough to let the Rams keep up so I think this one will be a late cover. Don’t subject yourself to too much viewing of this match.

Shaun: Miami (+4) @ San Diego Confidence LVL 6
Miami has been on a roll since week 6, disposing of Fitzmagic and the Jets last week. San Diego won a shootout with the Titans in a high scoring affair. The Dolphins have been riding the back of fantasy darling Jay Ajayi, averaging a league best 205 rushing yards as a team over their last 3. Miami is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs San Diego. The Chargers are 2-6 ATS at home in their last eight following a win. I don’t feel great about putting my hot streak on the back of Tannehill, but hopefully Ajayi will carry the Dolphins and me to a win this week. Miami 30-28.