Walking The Line: Week 8

That’s how it’s supposed to work! Well, for some of us at least, this was a good week, and we both have promised to get you guys back to the green and we’ve come through with that. Although Shaun took a slight step backwards last week, if you played our 10 picks you came out way ahead and we’re back here for more handouts in week 8. Before we move on, let’s check out how we’re doing this year:

Last Week

Steve: 5-0            Season Record: 18-16-1

Shaun: 2-3           Season Record: 16-17-2

We are getting there and believe it or not, we still have a long way to go and a lot of opportunity to make this pay off! Keep the faith and let’s dive in to week 8!

Steve’s Games

Green Bay (+3) @ Atlanta Confidence LVL: 8
This is the type of game that you wait for every Sunday. This should be a fun one and tons of fantasy goodness all around. The Packers are coming off of their Thursday night drubbing of the Bears while Atlanta is trying to wash the taste of a bad loss out of their mouths. Trust me, I know the taste. But to me, it looks like the Pack has turned the corner and having Ty Montgomery in the backfield makes things hard to plan for. The Packers are 7-1 SU on the road following a loss on the road, which you’d find they did in Week 2 against the Vikings. I pair this with the fact that the Falcons, yet again after starting the season hot has started to cool off. The Falcons are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and what’s worse is that they’re 0-10 ATS and 2-8 SU as a home favorite, and that includes last week’s loss to San Diego. Give me the points and the Pack to win this one outright.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (+3) Confidence LVL: 7
Can anyone say home dog?? I can, I just did actually, you just couldn’t hear it. There are a lot of home dogs to choose from this week, which actually makes it a bit tough to pick your spots but I like this one. It’s probably because the Colts are 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games as a home dog. Those are some solid numbers there. I know the Colts have zero defense, but other than Spencer Ware, the Chiefs have just about zero offense and I think Andrew Luck and the Colts can keep pace in this one, no problem. The Chiefs have looked pretty good lately, although they are still only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and what’s worse is that they’re only 1-4 ATS against the Colts in their past 5 matchups. I think we’re in for a high scoring affair much like the playoff matchup we saw between these 2 teams a few years ago. Can’t pass up this home dog, take the Colts.

New England (-6.5) @ Buffalo Confidence LVL: 7
Going from something I almost always do (taking the home dog), I now venture to something I almost always hate doing which is taking a big road favorite. The Pats are favored by almost a touchdown here and I don’t think it’s enough. Do we remember a few weeks ago when these teams met and the Bills shut out a then Jacoby Brissett-led New England team? Well I can guarantee you that the Hoodie hasn’t forgotten either, and the Patriots are 7-1-1 ATS in revenge games. On top of that, New England owns Buffalo and I almost mean that literally. The Pats are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Ralph Wilson Stadium. Buffalo has really turned their season around after getting hosed on Thursday night in week 2 against the Jets but have ultimately been a hot bet to start this season, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5. I just can’t bet against the Hoodie in a revenge game. Tom Brady will throw 50 times and the Pats might cover the OVER themselves. Lay the points and don’t fret, this one is golden.

Oakland/Tampa Bay OVER 50 Confidence LVL: 8
I’ve taken the Raiders a lot this year, I mean A LOT, but the spread for this one was basically a pick’em and this being yet another instance where the west coast team travels east for a morning game, I think the magic might be about to run out, although the Raiders stayed in Florida after last week’s win over the Jags. The Bucs are back in the Eastern Time zone after handling the 49ers rather easily so I didn’t get a great feeling when trying to pick a side. But then I saw this number and thought “My, that’s low”. These are two very solid offenses with a lot of weapons, and what’s more is that both team’s defenses have really been struggling. I think we might see this spread covered by halftime, but even if it’s not, hitting the total won’t be hard to do. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland’s last 7 games and for Tampa, the OVER has hit in 6 of their 9 games. Both of these teams like to score points, and score they will. Take the over and start anyone from a fantasy standpoint in this one!

Shaun’s Games

Seattle @ New Orleans (+3) Confidence LVL: 7
I really hope I'm wrong on this one. My Seahawks are coming off a tie, yes a freaking tie, in Arizona. Not only was it a tie, but it was 6-(curse word) 6!! The Saints are coming off of a loss to the Chiefs that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. But Arrowhead is a tough place to play, and the Saints are a completely different team at home in the dome. Drew Brees as a home dog is 7-3, and teams on the road after a tie are 0-7 with an average loss of 19 pts (also applies to Arizona this week). Not to mention the fact Russel Wilson is a shell of last year’s Russ. He's hurt, bad, and if I had a dollar for every time this year Wilson hobbled out of the pocket and chucked it out of bounds I wouldn't need to gamble anymore. I just don't think they can keep up with the Saints offensively. Saints 24-16.

Oakland (+1) @ Tampa Bay Confidence LVL: 6
Oakland did what they do last week, winning on the road against an increasingly obvious god awful Jacksonville team. Tampa Bay did the same thing with the 49ers. I feel like these 2 are the same team in opposite conferences. The problem is only one can be the road team, and this week that’s the Raiders. Jameis Winston is just 3-7 ATS at home in his career and Oakland have been road warriors, somehow remaining immune to the bet against a west coast teams traveling east for the 1:00 kickoff, a trend that was profitable for so long. I'll say it’s close but Oakland wins in a tight one. Raiders 30-28.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (+3) Confidence LVL: 6
Andrew Luck finally looked like the guy his owners expected when they drafted him in a victory over the Titans due in large part to the line keeping him upright for a change. Kansas City disposed of the Saints at home. Moncrief may be back and I'm hoping maybe the coaches have finally figured out how to keep the Colts franchise QB off his back. Luck is 8-0 ATS as a home dog. I believe this is a shootout. The Chiefs ground game of Ware and possibly Charles, versus the air attack of Luck, Hilton, Moncrief (maybe) and Doyle. Doyle rules!! Colts 38-33.

New England (-6.5) @ Buffalo Confidence LVL: 8
REVENGE!!!!!!! REVENNNNNGE!! I believe the Bills may be in some trouble here. The Pats took care of the Big Ben-less Steelers last week. The Bills got Ajayi-ed and lost to the hapless Dolphins. I believe McCoy may not play, and Tom, Bill, and the TEs will smell blood in the water. In the Bill and Brady era, the Pats are 8-0 in games where the get a shot at revenge, winning their last 4 by over an average of 27 pts per game. Patriots 42-20.

Wildcards

Steve: Minnesota (-5) @ Chicago Confidence LVL: 4
I won’t lie to you guys, to all 7 of you who read this, if I didn’t have to pick a 5th pick this week, I wouldn’t have. There are too many close spreads and I’m having trouble seeing value in many of them, but here’s one that might be sneaking by. Again, I’m going against what works for me most and taking a semi-large road favorite here with the Vikings. I think they’re going to be mad at how they played in Philly last week and Mike Zimmer is going to have these guys ready to go. Despite their hiccup last week, Minnesota is still 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games, and even 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. On the flip side, the Bears are a pathetic 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and only 1-7 SU in their last 8 at Soldier Field. That one game is one that I picked here in this article a few weeks back, but I’m over it. Jay Cutler’s first game back against this angry defense. No thanks. Lay the points and take the Purple Rain!

Shaun: New York/Cleveland OVER 43.5 Confidence LVL: 8
Oh! Oh! Oh! Fitzmagic!! He's back. The Geno experiment lasted a quarter and a half. Forte showed back up and Fitz led the Jets to victory over the Ravens. The Browns continued to be the Browns, losing in typical fashion to the Bengals. I am under the impression that McCown will start, and I think that makes Cleveland almost respectable, at least against the Jets. Plus Fitz has a chip on his shoulder and I think this ends up being a fantasy friendly, entertaining game between two bad teams. Points will be scored. Take the over.