Walking The Line: Week 7

And there it is! Finally, a winning week for us overall and if you put some scratch down on every one of our picks this week, you came out on top and have started to put some money back in your pocket. All we can say is thanks for keeping the faith and we will do everything possible to keep it going! As we start to learn a bit more about the teams this season, things can only get better! So let’s stop lollygagging and see how we’re doing so far this year:

Last Week

Steve: 3-eason Record: 13-16-1

Shaun: 3-1-eason Record: 14-14-2

Getting ever closer to righting the ship for this season and so we must roll on! Let’s get into our Week 7 picks!

Steve’s Picks

Saints/Chiefs UNDER 50.5 Confidence LVL: 7
I really shouldn’t have to explain myself much for this one, but then again, looking at my record maybe I should. First we have the Saints in an away game which almost always equates to a low scoring game. In fact, the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Saints last 5 games on the road. Now I know that the Saints are as porous as a sponge on defense but let’s remember who their playing here. Yes, that’s right, the Alex Smith led Chiefs. Not the most frightening offense in the league, that’s for sure. For Kansas City, the total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 9 games. This just isn’t an offense that puts up a ton of points and on the road, the Saints aren’t either. Take the under. 

San Diego (+6.5) @ Atlanta Confidence LVL: 7
This is actually my favorite pick this week, but only at a confidence level of 7 because Atlanta’s offense is legitimately scary so there’s always that chance that a blowout happens. But San Diego, despite their record has been a great bet this season as they’ve had a lead in the 4th quarter in every game they’ve played. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games which is impressive, but what’s ever more impressive is the fact that they’re 8-1 in their last 9 road games. Now on the flipside, Atlanta has also covered their last 5 spreads and we know this team is for real. I can’t say another 4th quarter meltdown won’t happen, but I can say the Chargers won’t be blown out of this one. 

Minnesota @ Philadelphia (+3) Confidence LVL: 7
I will follow up my favorite pick of the week with one of my least favorite. The Eagles haven’t looked great lately, coming home off of a divisional loss against Washington where their offense failed to put up any points. That usually wouldn’t mean good things when welcoming in the first ranked defense in the NFL. But don’t be fooled, the Vet in Philly is a tough place to play, and the Eagles are 15-8 there in their last 23 games. Plus let us not forget the power of the home dog! The Vikings are coming off of a bye week, which sometimes can be a real momentum killer. What’s more is that the Vikings are 1-8 SU when going on the road after consecutive road wins. I have picked against the Vikings before and it burned me. I think this week I get my revenge. 

Seahawks (+1.5) @ Arizona Confidence LVL: 8
The Cardinals are coming off of a Monday night dismantling of the reeling New York Jets while the Seahawks are riding high after beating the Atlanta Falcons in a hard fought game. This has become one of the best matchups in the NFL and Sunday night looks to be no different. And though both these teams seem to be headed in the right direction, the showdown between these 2 teams in Arizona has been fairly one sided. In the last 3 meetings of these teams in AZ, Seattle is 3-0 and has outscored the Cardinals by a 105-34 margin. Seattle is also 7-2 SU in their last 9 road games while Arizona is merely 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. I think this game is close throughout but will take the Seahawks winning on a field goal…again. 

Shaun’s Picks

Minnesota (-3) @ Philadelphia Confidence LVL: 8
Minnesota, inexplicably behind Sam Bradford and no Adrian Peterson are 5-0, coming off a bye, and 5-0 ATS. The Eagles are coming off a loss to the team from Washington. Wentz started the season well, but coming off their bye the offense has struggled vs Detroit and Washington. Last week the offense was held completely out of the end zone. Only scoring on a kick return TD and pick 6 before kicking some field goals. Now they face the big purple machine, a defense that makes good offenses look bad and struggling offenses look completely inept. Philly had the bye at the worst time, going in 3-0, and 0-2 SU and ATS coming out. Whether it just broke their momentum or that it gave defensive coordinators time to study the tape on Wentz,who knows. I'll take both trends to continue. Minnesota 27-16.

Cleveland (+9.5) @ Cincinnati Confidence LVL: 6
Gut call here. The Battle of Ohio. The Bengals gave the Pats a game last week, for the first half anyway. The Pats had their way with Cincy in the 2nd half on the way to a 35-17 win.  The Browns gave up a big early lead vs the Titans, only to score late and secure a back door cover but ultimately lose 28-26. Even though the Bengals are 6-1 SU at home vs the Browns over their last 7, the Browns are 6-3-1 ATS vs Cincy over their last 10 meetings. I think Cleveland may not compete for a win, but Ilike them to stay within single digits, or at least get back there by the games end. Bengals 27-20

Oakland (+1) @ Jacksonville Confidence LVL: 7
Jacksonville is fresh off a 1 point victory over the Bears, where they looked terrible through 3 quarters and then turned it on in the fourth to pull out the win. Oakland is coming off a beatdown at home courtesy of Kansas City. Oakland is back on the road this week though, where they look like a far better team than what they do in games at the Black Hole. Over the last 2 seasons the Raiders are 8-0 ATS in road games vs the AFC. Jacksonville isn't very good. How's that for analysis. 

Patriots (-7.5) @ Pittsburgh Confidence LVL: 9
New England disposed of the Bengals in the second half of their matchup last week. Their two TE set is dominating, much to the dismay of Edelman owners everywhere. The offense is humming since ol' Tommy Boy came back. The Steelers lost Big Ben last week in a shameful loss the Dolphins. THE DOLPHINS!! Ben is out for a while and while I don't think the offense will be Vick-like levels of terrible, I definitely think the Steelers take a step back scoring wise. All the ATS trends say to take Pitt. But I keep saying in my head “Landry Jones...Tom Brady”. Patriots 38-17.

Wildcards

Steve: Oakland (+1) @ Jacksonville Confidence LVL: 6
Man, the Raiders have racked up enough frequent flyer miles this season already to send Philip River’s family on a trip around the world. This will be the 4th time in 7 games that the Raiders travel to the east coast for a 1PM EST kickoff which typically would spell disaster. But Oakland is a different fish. The type of fish that doesn’t like to win at home evidently. Oakland is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and have looked solid in each one they’ve played this year. The Jaguars haven’t looked good yet this season, like, at all. Although the Jaguars are 4-1 in their last 5 games overall, they are a pitiful 2-4 SU in their last 6 home games. The spread here is too small and I think Oakland wins this one straight up, and pretty easily. 

Shaun: Patriots/Steelers OVER 47 Confidence LVL: 7
I sweat out the over with the Pats and Bengals last week. I don't think they start so slow with the Steelers. Pitt still has weapons with Brown and Bell so I don't think they will be shut out and the Pats will score a ‘plenty. Double down, take the Pats and the over.